Corso Devisenhandel 2 12 Subwoofer

Aufrechtzuerhalten. Aufrechtzuerhalten. Aufrechtzuerhalten. Aufrechtzuerhalten. Aufrechtzuerhalten. ,. . 03 2014 11 2014 11 2014 19 2015 04 2014 - 0. 90 90 -. Aufrechtzuerhalten. . 100 100 ,, - Atlas Shrugged war das größte, schönste Buch und seit zehn Jahren mein Standard. Das ist, wie lange es dauerte, um Advanced Racquetball zu schreiben. Die Fortsetzung zu meinem meistverkauften Complete Book of Racquetball, die vor vierzig Jahren versprach, diese Fortsetzung. It39s 825 Seiten und deckt jeden Aspekt des Spiels von Sneaker zu frontalen Lappen für Open-Pro-Spieler. Es war eine Arbeit der Liebe für 1000 Stunden in einem Amazonas-Schweißkästchen Cyber ​​für 11 Stunden am Tag, sieben Tage die Woche für die letzten drei Monate, auf einer der letzten tausend oder so Stunden schriftlich früheren Abschnitten. Es gibt über 400 Fotos, einschließlich sequentielle Striche und dient. Persönliche Interviews mit 90 der 30 jüngsten Weltmeister. Eine vollständige Appendektomie. Ich beschloss, den Titel zu schlagen, und zuckte wie Atlas, aufgrund der Inkompetenz der undeserving Racketball-Community. Sie sind auch ein verbaler als Druck-Seite Leser. Mein Ziel war es, das Buch zu schreiben und listet es bei Amazon. Ein anderer Satz von Miami-Augen, der das Exemplar des Exemplars gelesen hat, sagte: "Es ist sehr gut, aber zu lang für die Rassetball-Mentalität." "Ich gebe die einzige Kopie, wie Diogenes, dem ersten verdienten Spieler, den ich begegne. Ich halte es von der Öffentlichkeit und wenn Sie wissen wollen, warum lesen Atlas Shrugged. Wir können bald erwarten, zu hören, die mumbo über, wie, wenn Januar ist der Markt ist wahrscheinlich, um für das Jahr et al. Wie oft muss dies fehlschlagen, bevor es seine Wirkung verliert. Rocky Humbert schreibt: Fühlen Sie sich frei, diese quotumboquot 8212 nennen, aber es gibt Hunderte von Millionen, wenn nicht Milliarden von US-Aktienmarkt Positionen, die beenden, wenn der Markt schließt heute unter dem Niveau von 1960-2000. Ich bin nicht voraussagen today39s schließen und die Wahrscheinlichkeit des Fallens 40 spu Punkte ist immer sehr niedrig (daher Wetten auf dieses Ergebnis hat lausige Chancen). Allerdings werde ich mit Vertrauen vorhersagen, dass, wenn diese quotstopsquot ausgelöst werden, werden Sie reiben werden Ihre Augen nächste Woche zu den viel niedrigeren Preisen, die Sie sehen werden. Hernan Avella schreibt: Was geschah mit der Idee, die Sie im Dezember über die Weisheit des gemeinen Mannes zurückverfolgt haben, der 36,5 Milliarden in Aktienfonds in die Weihnachtswoche schüttete und damit die größten Zuwächse auf die Rekordmarke zeigte, als die US-Aktien auf Rekordhöhen stiegen. Sind die Positionen, die schauen, um heute zu verkaufen Erleuchten uns bitte. Rocky Humbert schreibt: Das quotcommon Manquot wird gut tun. It39s die Fachleute, die auf Sachen wie dieses verkaufen werden. Anton Johnson schreibt: Wondering über die Selbst-Förderung Mebane Faber und seine kürzlich gestartete ETF Geschäft, fand ich diesen Wert Nugget: Cambria globalen Wert ETF (GVAL) zurück seit Anfang (3-12-2014 bis 1-28-2015) ist 39The Cambria Global Value ETF sucht Anlageergebnisse, die eng an die Kurs - und Ertragslage des Cambria Global Value Index8230 anknüpfen. Als nächstes trennt der Index die Top 25 dieser Länder, gemessen an den langfristigen Bewertungskriterien von Cambria. Der Index zeigt dann Aktien mit Marktkapitalisierungen über 200 Millionen an. Der Index setzt sich aus rund 100 Unternehmen zusammen.39 anonyme Schriften: Meb Faber betrachtet gern 12 Monate gleitende Durchschnitte, die am Ende des Monats berechnet wurden. Für SampP haben wir: Wöchentlich, in Blythe, CA High School durch die 2000er Jahre, eine hektische Version dieser Explosion über die Schulsprechanlage für alle zu hören, beschwören mich, ein weiteres Feuer in der Severely Emotional Disturbed Klassenzimmer auf der Rückseite des Campus Zwischen den 4-H-Stiften von Schweinen, Ziegen und Kühen und dem breiten Bewässerungskanal. Sobald dort, im spartanischen SED Raum, die kleine Gruppe von acht nervösen Jugendlichen erzählte, wie sie hatte browbeat oder griff die Sub-Flucht der Tür zu diesem Zeitpunkt. Ich würde antworten, Jeder in Sand Valley, wo ich lebe, und jeder auf meinen Reisen, fliegt den Griff einmal in eine Weile. Der Trick ist, die Ursache zu identifizieren und zu korrigieren. Es ist der gleiche Vorgang, wie die Festsetzung eines Schlägerschlags, wo ich ein Champion war.39 Zum Glück, wie in Racketball, wo ich meine Abdeckung auf den Hof geschleudert und war vor 3-0 vor dem ersten dienen, ging mein Ruf mich in diesem Klassenzimmer. Manchmal denke ich, die Studenten rioted, um mich zu beschwören, wie Gefängnisinsassen Stadium Nahrung kämpft, um Routine zu brechen. Die Kinder erhellten, um die bizarren Gründe für ihr Missverhalten zu enthüllen, das ihre Verbannung zu dieser peinlichen Klasse verursacht hatte. Zuerst sagte ich ihnen, dass wir den Begriff SED hier nicht benutzen werden. Etiketten schaffen Identitäten. Ihr seid so normal wie ich und meine Nachbarn im Sand Valley. Als nächstes ist das Ziel, um Sie wieder in die normalen Klassen. Drittens, wenn you39re hier in Ihrem Elternteil, um ein Portfolio von Whacky zu schaffen, um auf das Wohlergehen für den Rest Ihres Lebens bekommen, denken Sie noch einmal. Es gibt eine lange Reihe von Studenten, die Sie in dieser Klasse ersetzen möchten. Viertens sind meine Methoden unorthodox, aber effektiv. Ich bin kein geschulter Psychologe, aber wenn du deine Arbeit machst, werde ich jede tägliche Lektion mit einer verwandten Geschichte von der Straße belohnen.39 Ihre Entschuldigungen waren miserabel wahr. Einige stiegen mit den Hähnen um 5 Uhr ohne Frühstück, um einen Bus für eine Stunde von einem abgelegenen Bauernhof zur Schule zu reiten, und kamen irritiert an. Oder, ihre Eltern tranken und schlugen sie in der Nacht zuvor. Ein Paar machte sich Sorgen darüber, dass er nach der Schule angeklagt war, und zeigte sezernierte 10-cm-Bohrer in ihre Buchstacheln. Ein Albino hatte keine Photophobie. Ein anderer war Legastheniker. Ein anderer malte seine Fingernägel purpurrot und sprach mit einem lisp für Aufmerksamkeit. Dies waren die Campus-harten Glücksfälle in einem Klassenzimmer, ihre letzte Chance vor der Vertreibung, und ich war ihre letzte Hoffnung. Wenn Sie jemanden über ein Fass wie diese haben, ist das Leben eigentlich ziemlich einfach. Ich verdunkelte die harten fluoreszierenden Lichter, und wir machten jumping-Buchsen, Sit-ups und Liegestütze für zwanzig Minuten. Dann drehte ich den Thermostaten, um das Zimmer zu kühlen, a la öffentlichen Flugzeugen, um die Passagiere zu beruhigen. Ich eröffnete die tägliche Beauftragung von der ständigen SED-Lehrerin, die herrliche Dame, die ich Frau Libda nannte, die oft bei Geschäftstreffen wegging, und so fiel ihre Pflicht auf mich. Sie war talentiert, fürsorglich, ein ehemaliger Navy Medic, Cop und Gefängnisschlüssel. Nachdem ihre Arbeit geleistet wurde, und die Abenteuergeschichte Belohnung, schrieb ich einen ausführlichen Bericht über das, was stattgefunden hatte und der Fortschritt der einzelnen Schüler in Spiegelschrift. Das Spiegelschreiben liest sich von rechts nach links, und schon früh hatte mich der Direktor in seinem Büro angerufen, um zu erklären, warum viele Schüler, vor allem die Athleten, ihre Texte auf den Kopf stellen. Er hatte aus seiner Jugend ein Boxbild von sich selbst an die Wand gelegt, und ich warf einen spöttischen linken Haken an seinen Kiefer, während er rechtfertigte, daß er, wenn er von links nach rechts gelesen hatte, schneller sein würde, den Jab zu fangen , Sowie der nächste Schmetterling, Auto oder Ball. Meine nach der Klasse Berichte an die Frau Libda waren ein Hit, und eines Tages redete sie mich an, die Studenten wie Sie, und ich auch. Ich sehe Sie als eine männliche Version von mir.39 Wir begannen Dating und sie, in einer bemutternden Weg, oft schlief spät nach Aufruf der Schule für ein sub, so konnte ich einen Anruf auf dem gleichen Telefon für die Arbeit berichten. Die Ziele wurden mit Erfolg, die Studenten gestoppt Klatschen Tapeten aus den Wänden, waren herzlich für den Besuch Sheriff, keine Selbstmordversuche und das primäre Ziel, die Studenten wieder in ihre gewöhnlichen Klassenzimmer. Die wertvollste Lektion, die ich meinen fremdenfeindlichen Studenten vermittelt habe, war die Kleine Stadt Amerika. 39That39s normal, wie sie geht in Small Town, America39. Ihre Erklärung für alles ist: Wir sind hier hundert Jahre alt, und wir taten das hundert Jahre auf diese Weise.39 Daher ist das Staatsmotto, Teil einer Gruppe, nehmen und geben Befehle, gehorchen.39 Die Lösung, Studenten, ist Geduld durch deine Jugend fortzusetzen und dann zu neuen Horizonten zu schlagen. Sie können immer den geschlagenen Weg zurück nach Blythe nehmen. Frau Libda schließlich nahm einen Job anderswo, und ich wurde von Riverside County gemietet, um ihre volle Zeit zu ersetzen. Es gab eine riesige Steigerung der Gehalt auf 40.000 mit voller medizinischer. Ich begann anonym zu spenden 15 von meinem Gehalt zurück zu Studentenmahlzeiten, gute Bücher, Schüler Doktor Rechnungen und Schachbretter für die Bibliothek. Ich hatte eine tolle Idee von einem Flügel über dem Kuckucksnest, in dem der Patient McMurray, der als Psychiater masqueriert, die anderen Patienten auf Ausflüge aus dem Krankenhaus nimmt. Sicherstellung der Erlaubnis von der Principal, die nun mein Kumpel aus der Boxlektion war, nahm ich die SED-Klassen auf Bildungs-Ausflüge in die Stadtbibliothek, Gefängnis, Kegelbahn, und für die Natur Wanderungen entlang der Bewässerung Graben, dass ihre Graduierung in die reale Welt blockiert . In den kommenden Monaten drehte sich meine Klassentür wie ein Barroom an einem Samstagabend mit neuen Studenten, die ankamen, sobald die ehemaligen Mainstream waren. Bald rückte die Backlist aus, und die Klasse schrumpfte zu drei Studenten. Eines Tages, nachdem ich die Vollzeit-SED Lehrer für etwa sechs Monate, wurde ich während der Klasse von der Riverside Schule Verwaltung genannt. Der Direktor zeigte höflich, dass Sie fast alle Schüler in ihre regulären Klassenzimmer eingeteilt haben. Glückwünsche. Wir lassen dich gehen.39 Ich lachte und säuberte den Schreibtisch. Ich hatte mich aus einem Job geholt. Die Lektion ist kein quadratischer Stift in einem runden Loch, ohne eine Konsequenz zu erwarten. Beeilt Eure innere Berufung, seid aber darauf vorbereitet, weiterzumachen. Ich traf die Spur zum Weltabenteuer, um mehr Geschichten zu haben, um einer nachfolgenden Klasse zu erzählen. 1. Durchschnittliche Renditen auf Aktien sind, um eine Zahl zufällig auszuwählen, 7. Aber wenn das Geschäft unversteuerte, die 10 werden könnte und wenn Umsatzsteuern verschwunden und fiel auf das Endergebnis, könnte das 14. Über fünfzig Jahre wird der Unterschied reinvestiert Wäre mehr als 20x mehr Kapital und wir könnten alle die Dinge einfach. 2. Die britische Regierung zieht es gern, Zahlungen auf Kontoquot von ihren nicht-PAYE-Steuerzahlern zu nehmen, wodurch Vorabzahlungen auf die vor dem Jahresende fälligen Steuern geleistet werden. Mit 2 Kapitalkosten und umfangreichem Betriebskapital scheint dies ein wenig ungnädiges Verhalten zu sein. Es sei denn, es wurde von der Regierung festgestellt, dass die meisten kleinen Unternehmen unter einer gewaltigen Belastung von Steuern, häuslichen und europäischen Vorschriften, Einfuhr - und Ausfuhrzölle usw. versagen und wie ein Einzelhandels-Forex-Broker, der alle seine Ma-amp-Pa-Kunden kennt Liquidate unter monströsen Vig, in allen Fällen Novates Client Sicherheiten so früh wie möglich. 3. Es wurde festgestellt, dass eine Handvoll reicher Leute so viel Reichtum wie Milliarden von Armen kontrollieren. Aber die meisten der ärmsten Menschen der Welt haben überhaupt keine Einsparungen, und wenn man also einen Teilsatz summiert, dessen Werte so gewählt werden, dass er sehr nahe bei Null liegt und mit einem anderen Satz verglichen wird, der keine Zahlen enthält, dann wird man offensichtlich eine große Ungleichheit sehen. Sie könnten genauso gut sagen, dass ein normaler US-Bürger mit 1.000 Ersparnissen tausendmal so viel Reichtum hat wie jemand im Kongo, der bis zu seinem letzten Dollar ist, und präsentieren Sie dies auch als fetisch und gierig. 4.Die 139squot pro Kopf Reichtum wird als eine kapitalisierte mittlere Summe berechnet, mit dem durchschnittlichen Nettovermögen von quotthe 1quot in den USA etwa 15-20m. Aber jede hundertste Person, die Sie treffen, hat keine Bilanz in der Nähe davon, da Mittelwert und Median sehr unterschiedlich sind. So schafft die Medien eine Wahrnehmung der quottenden Situation, die völlig ohne Beziehung zur Realität ist. 5. Es ist eine große Schande, dass es so viele Armen auf der Welt gibt. Aber was haben die freien Märkte in dieser Hinsicht bewirkt Durch das Machtrecht der Verteilung des Reichtums, nur Bill Gates39 und Warren Buffett39s Reichtum allein muss einen signifikanten Prozentsatz der quotthe 1squot Stash darstellen. So geschieht es, dass diese beiden Individuen in der Nähe von 100 ihrer aufgelaufenen Einsparungen zu philanthropischen Ursachen für die Zukunft gespendet haben. Bill Gates ist einer der erfolgreichsten Geschäftsleute auf dem Planeten und er hat seine Arbeit, Intellekt und organisatorische Fähigkeiten in kostenlos geworfen. Im Gegensatz dazu, hätten sie auf das Äußerste auf dem Weg besteuert werden, könnte es vernünftig sein, zu erwarten, dass ihre Mittel in einer Vielzahl von Regierungsabteilungen von zweifelhafter Effizienz zerstreut haben würde 7. In der Tat, wenn quotthe 1quot Kontrolle etwa 20tr der USA39s 60tr von Reichtum, und Buffett und Gates verpacken 150 Milliarden zwischen ihnen, die bereits 0,75 des Teigs heiß diskutiert, die in der Tat für wohltätige Zwecke vorgesehen ist. 8. Wenn man diese Berechnung den ganzen Reichtumsbaum fortsetzte, ohne Kapital, das entweder für philanthropische Zwecke verpfändet oder reinvestiert wurde, um einen besseren Lebensstandard für die Bevölkerung zu schaffen (etwas konsequent in der hedonischen Anpassung der Inflationsstatistiken verborgen) ), Welcher Prozentsatz ihres Vermögens die Megarich tatsächlich verbrauchen 9. Sind die megarich nicht in der Tat verbringen die meiste Zeit ihres Lebens konkurrieren für ihre Tabelle Ranking auf der Forbes-Website, die jeden Download von denen etwa 0,001 Cent ist Sollten wir nicht dankbar sein Diese Selbsttäuschung auf ihre und ihre zweifelsfrei schwer plastisch-chirurgischen Frauen und Freundinnen behalf 10. Diese Notizen können oder wurden nicht von den Koch-Brüdern gesponsert. Gary Rogan schreibt: Es scheint, dass mindestens zwei Aspekte für den wachsenden Reichtum disparityquot: (a) Inwieweit die quotelitequot steuert die neue Schaffung von Wohlstand durch illicitillegalimmoralische Mittel (b) Inwieweit die hochintelligente, die von quotproperquot Disposition können mehr verdienen Als der Rest, nur weil sie besser geeignet sind, in der heutigen Wirtschaft gedeihen. Gewöhnlich hat die überwiegende Mehrheit derjenigen, die über dieses Thema der wachsenden Ungleichheit sprechen, eine Agenda, um von der Rhetorik der Reichtumverteilung zu profitieren und der einfachen Existenz des Kapitalismus eine Reichtumsungleichheit zuzuschreiben, und haben nicht die Absicht, die Problematik zu lösen oder gar zu kümmern Ansonsten. Nun, alles geht zur Hölle. Russland ist immer noch ein Problem, scheint Griechenland zu einem trojanischen Pferd zu werden, wird die europäische QE, wenn durch die Daten bestätigt, wird Kraftstoff für das Feuer sonst verschwendet Geld. Die echte QE für Europa wäre fiskalische Union, es ist nicht klar, welchen Masochismus pervers will weiterhin die Dose trotz allem, was geschieht zu treten. Sie zerstören, strukturell und industriell die europäischen Nationen. Ich denke, der Euro sollte gegen die nächsten 23 Monate geben, wenn positive Daten folgen werden, also erwarte ich, was aus 15gen (Hammer auf europäischen Indizes) passiert ist. Andernfalls wird die Parität fortgesetzt, EUR 0,800.75 Worst Case. Ich denke, dass Birnen sind reif in den USA, so vielleicht verkaufen die Tops und in Schatzkammer wartet auf den zweiten Teil des Jahres, wenn bessere Gelegenheiten sind eine Möglichkeit. Das Öl wird im zweiten Teil des Jahres 2015 ansteigen (wenn nicht vorher). Ich denke, Makroentscheidung ist schneller als Tatsache, aber es gibt nichts Schlimmeres, als Geld in eine Wirtschaft einzuspritzen, die sich nicht erholen kann, weil es von opportunistischen Nationen (politicianbureaucrats) verwaltet wurde, die nicht bereit sind, zusammenzuarbeiten. Strukturell wird die QE keine Verbesserung haben. Es macht keinen Sinn, Strenge zu tun, während das EU-Industrie-System zusammenbricht und dann sechs Jahre später, erkannten sie den Fehler, versuchen, die Fortschritte der Wirtschaft Druck wieder zu beleben. Das System, die Nationen zu schulen und sie dann besser zu verwalten, so vom IWF geliebt, scheint in Europa verwurzelt zu sein. Meine Großmutter sagte immer, es war besser, wenn es schlimmer war, und wir wußten es nicht, aber sie hatte recht. Ich habe vor kurzem über die Arbeit von Peter Turchin, einem Evolutionsbiologen, gestolpert, der versucht, quantifizierbare wissenschaftliche Techniken auf das Studium der Geschichte als Teil eines Feldes anzuwenden, das als Cliodynamik bekannt ist. Von der Santa Fe Institute39s Klingel auf sie: Die Vergangenheit wiederholt sich nicht, aber sie reimt, sagte Mark Twain einmal, ein Hinweis auf die Muster der Geschichte, anekdotisch wahrgenommen. Heute verschmilzt ein neues Feld um die Vorstellung, dass historische Muster bis zu einem gewissen Grad messbar sind und dass die Zukunft auch bis zu einem gewissen Grad vorhergesagt werden kann. Forscher, die in diesem Bereich beteiligt sind, nennen es "quotcliodynamicsquot" nach Clio, der griechischen Muse der Geschichte. Gelehrte der menschlichen Geschichte haben traditionell die Vergangenheit als eine Kette von idiosynkratischen Ereignissen studiert, wobei jedes Ereignis eine einzigartige Antwort auf einzigartige Umstände ist, sagt SFI External Professor David Krakauer. Historische Gebiete wie Paläontologie haben sich auf Sammlungen von evidencemdashfossils, zum Beispiel mdashto Schlüsse über die Vergangenheit. Einige Felder haben Fortschritte in der Annäherung an Geschichte als Wissenschaft gemacht. In der Archäologie haben z. B. rigorose Feldbeobachtungsmethoden neue, quantifizierbare Informationen über Standort, Verteilung, Häufigkeit und Organisation bestimmter menschlicher Tätigkeiten zur Verfügung gestellt. In der Populationsgenetik werden evolutionäre Ergebnisse als Wahrscheinlichkeiten modelliert. Cliodynamiker mögen die historischen Felder sehen, die Methoden untereinander teilen und Ansätze und Theorien von der Physik und von anderen lang-quantifizierten Feldern annehmen. Die Werkzeuge der Komplexitätswissenschaft beginnen nun, die Aufgabe zu lösen, sagt Krakauer. Mathematische und rechnerische Techniken wie agentenbasierte Modelle, Machtrechtsbeziehungen und mehr klassische Differentialgleichungsmodelle sind in mehreren Bereichen hilfreich, die den Wissenschaftlern helfen, neue theoretische Rahmenbedingungen zu entwickeln. Obwohl er vielleicht nicht damit einverstanden war, wie die reduktionistische Cliodynamik auf den ersten Blick scheint, kann ich nur mit Echos von Giovanni Battista Vico39s New Science rechnen. Ich muss für die schiere Kühnheit dieses Pipedreams geben. Turchin hat ein Buch mit dem Titel "Secular Cycles" zu diesem Thema veröffentlicht und unterhält auch eine Website. Ich begann zu waten durch seine Arbeit über die Analyse der quotDynamik der politischen Instabilität in den Vereinigten Staaten, 1780ndash2010quot auch. It39s nicht ohne Mängel, aber ist einen Blick wert. Das ganze Feld kann am Ende zum Scheitern verurteilt sein und hoffentlich gewonnen wird eine andere düstere Wissenschaft, aber ich dachte, es war einen Blick wert, und frage mich, ob alle anderen Spezifikationen vertraut sind. Wenn nichts anderes, könnte es zu bestäuben mit einigen Ideen für den Handel. Anonymous schreibt: Das klingt sehr ähnlich wie die Prämisse hinter Isaac Asimov39s Foundation Series, die Bücher, die mich auf seine Arbeit und Sci-Fi im Allgemeinen hakte. Aus dem obigen Wiki: Die Prämisse der Serie ist, dass der Mathematiker Hari Seldon sein Leben verbrachte einen Zweig der Mathematik bekannt als Psychohistorie, ein Konzept der mathematischen Soziologie. Mit den Gesetzen der Massenwirkung kann sie die Zukunft voraussagen, aber nur in großem Maßstab. Die CME und die CFTC machen eine große Arbeit bei der Zerstörung der Marktökologie durch Ausrottung der 39spoofers39 aus den Futures-Märkten. Diese intelligente Spezies hilft, das Gleichgewicht des Auftragsflusses durch das Spielen von Liquiditätsasymmetrien aufrechtzuerhalten und so die Population von naiven Momentum-Front-Run-Strategien in Schach zu halten. Es erinnert mich an die Auslöschung und spätere Wiedereinführung der Wölfe in Yellowstone. Ed Stewart schreibt: Ich kann nicht sehen, wie spoofers für jedermann schlecht sind, aber die Impulse vorderen Läufer, wie Sie vorschlagen. Es muss ein quotgod gegebenquot Recht vor springen vor langsamere bewegte Teilnehmer, die wir nicht kennen. Ich würde gerne wissen, wie sich die Spoofing-Praxis entwickelt hat. Meine Vermutung ist, es begann als eine Gegenstrategie zu neutralisieren Front-Run, bevor es eine Quelle von Gewinn Vinh Tu schreibt: Und quottheyquot zerstört Limit Orders, wenn sie die Trades während der Blitz Crash gebrochen. Ich denke, Front-Run ist die einzige tugendhafte und gottesfürchtige Strategie Hernan Avella schreibt: Vinh, ich denke, der Fall mit den Limit Orders ist einfach Anpassung durch die hft Jungen Techniken gezwungen. Sie haben jedes Spiel aufgeworfen. Was ppl gewinnen, indem sie ihre Absicht im Auftragsbuch werben. Was bemerkenswert ist, ist, wie lange es dauerte, bis andere Teilnehmer anfingen, randomisierte, aufspaltende und verborgene Befehle in einer weit verbreiteten Weise zu beginnen. Aber zu Ihrem Punkt, ja, Geschwindigkeit ist teuer und 39they39 versuchen, diese Kosten zu erholen. Anonymous schreibt: Berühmte Energiehändler John Arnold sagt: "Frontseitig ist profitabel gegen traditionelle Befehle von Menschen eingegeben. Aber bei den Spoofers sieht das Bild ganz anders aus: Wenn der Frontal-HFT-Algorithmus vor einer Spoof-Order springt, wird der Front-Runner getäuscht und verliert Geld. Der HFT39s-Frontalgorithmus kann problemlos zwischen legitimen Befehlen und Spoofs unterscheiden. Plötzlich steht der Front-Runner einem echten Marktrisiko gegenüber und macht die rationale Entscheidung, weniger Vorlauf zu machen. Kurz gesagt, Spoofing stellt das Risiko der Front-Run unrentabel. Da Spoofing nur profitabel ist, wenn Front-Run existiert, so dass beide würde sicherstellen, dass weder weit verbreitet ist. Die grundlegenden Ideen sind sehr ähnlich zu Hernan39s Markt Ökologie Post. Die eine Sache, die die Minister erklärten Carlos war, dass der saudische Botschafter nicht geschädigt werden sollte, wie das Land der Lynchpin von allem war. Der Besuch von Obama und die Vermeidung der Französisch durch die USA liefert Beweise 25 Jahre später von der Weisheit von Carlos. Es ist während der bizzards moreso als andere Stürme, dass die Menschen leiden schwere Verletzungen. Orthopädische Chirurgen sind gewöhnlich ziemlich beschäftigt nach historischen Stürmen. Ob diese die Prognose erfüllen wird, bleibt abzuwarten. Als ich bei Shock-Trauma während des 1983er Blizzards angerufen wurde, haben wir eine Blizzard-Bedingung von Wind und Wetter. Irgendein Kollege im Frederick County (ich war in Baltimore City) entschied, dass es eine große Zeit sein würde, sein snowmobile heraus für einen Rummel durch den Sturm zu nehmen. Er vermisste den Baum, den sein Schneemobil annahm und lostmdashand und er erlitt mehrfache Systemverletzungenmdashlacerated Leber (es war Hälfte weg von der Hohlvene und die Chirurgen waren überrascht, dass er die Hubschrauberreise überlebt), gebrochenes Becken, gebrochener Femur, zusammengebrochene Lunge, Gehirnblutung , Schädelfraktur, gebrochene Backe und Augenhöhle, 4 oder 5 gebrochene Rippen, eine gebrochene Kniescheibe, ein gebrochenes Handgelenk, ein Haufen gebrochener Zehen. Und bilateralen verlagerten Schultern, ganz zu schweigen von umfangreichen Blutergüsse. Erhielt er etwas wie 25 oder 30 Einheiten Blut. Es war ziemlich schlecht. 6 Wochen später verließ er das Krankenhaus. Schneestürme sind gefährlich. Sie sind nicht nur große Stürme. AMERICAN SNIPER und THE HURT LOCKER beiseite, ist es relativ selten für einen Film heute zu strahlen l39air de macho durchgeführt. John Wayne kaufte die Farm eine Weile zurück. Van Damme und die Firma sind auf Hiatus. Liam wird wieder aufgenommen und erneut besucht. Aber BLACK SEA kommt dicht an ein hartnäckiges, spannungsgetriebenen maskuline Begrüßungskorb für Kinogänger hungrig für Schauspieler, nicht CG-Effekte. Für harte Scripting, ohne PC Müll, der den Text für die empfindliche Mikro-Aggression-orientiert. "Schwarzer Seegang ist dieser Film. Regie von Kevin Macdonald, beginnt die Geschichte in der Entlassung Robinson, ein Tierarzt U-Boot-Kapitän, gespielt von einem grandiosen, Korpus gehärteten Jude Law, die mit den Beinen und leichte Höhlenmensch Prädisposition eines langjährigen swabbie geht. Matrosen auf dem Lande schauen immer etwas unbeweglich des Bodens unter ihnen, und manifestieren eine breite Haltung, falls die Terra nicht-so-firma unter ihnen. Er wird von einer maritimen Bergung überschwemmt, die über ihre Seeleute trocken ist und nicht an Uhren und aufgehoben-pinkigen Abschiedspartien gegeben wird. Vor etwa 70 Jahren war ein deutsches U-Boot mit 40 Millionen oder so in Gold verloren irgendwo im Schwarzen Meer. Wiederherstellung es ist ein Schema-Gesetz und seine engen Kumpel kommen mit Geld zu generieren, nachdem sie ohne viel von einem Umschlag cashiered wurden. Don39t ließ die Tür Sie auf dem Ausweg treffen. Ausgestaltung der alten sub sie von einem Go-zwischen gegeben werden, Daniels (Scoot McNairy), um die Wiederherstellung der Goldbarren zu erreichen bedeutet die Einstellung einer rauhen Mannschaft: halb Russen, halb Briten. Ein großer Teil des Gesprächs ist in unübersetztem Russisch, aber wenn es Untertitel von den dunkelhäutigen, oft auch stillschweigenden Russkies gibt, werden sie wisecracking oder in der Regel No-Bull-Gries das Publikum lacht mit, obwohl die britischen Naveys keine Ahnung haben. Der Film könnte gewinnen, wenn sie die britischen Dialoge untertiteln würden, denn sie sind schnell, guttural und oft unterhalb der offensichtlichen verständlichen Schwelle. Die Eröffnungsgutschriften beinhalten eine Montage von Stalin, den Zweiten Weltkrieg auf See mit Deutschen und Russen in körniger Perspektive und an Land, mit einer Blutspülung, die die Bildschirme von oben nach unten durchnässt. Diese BW - und altbraunen Fotos und Filmmaterial stellen die Szene für die kommenden Stunden des riskanten Scrimmage gegen russische Flotten, interethnische und interne Push-ons, allgegenwärtige Gefahren von Ligen tief in einem Sargasso von ozeanischen Gefahren und unvorhersehbaren Fehlschlägen. Und eine erstaunliche Verrat sogar die versierte konnte nicht schlucken. RobinsonLaw betreibt den russischen Diesel-Sub, graziös und glaubwürdig. Es gibt einen jungen Mann, 18, Tobin (Bobby Schofield), der in letzter Minute aus Mangel an einem der erfahrenen Unterseeboote an Bord ist, und er wächst mit dem Teil und lernt die verblüffenden Räder und Druckmanometer meistens von den russischen Orden , Grunzen und direktionalen Handsprachenmdashas sowie aus dem väterlichen Interesse des Gesetzes in ihm. Es ist eine humanisierende Zuneigung, unddie Zeit, die sie inmitten der Krisen der zunehmenden Schwere ausspiegelt, macht euch bewusst, dass die Feindschaft von Law39s workmdashoften ist, solche Männer haben wenig Platz für liebevolle Fürsorge von jedermann, geschweige denn Neugeborene, mit denen sie in Schlachtbedingungen stecken. Die Russen, abergläubisch und zäh, nennen den jungen Mann in ihre 12., spöttisch, die Jungfrau. Die Seeleute halten es nicht für günstig, mit einer Jungfrau zu reisen. (In unserer Erfahrung sind Seeleute und solche Hochrisiko-Abenteurer nicht freundlich zu Frauen, die mit ihnen in irgendeiner Kapazität, eithermdasheven verkleidet als so-so verwegene Männer, mit Brüsten squooshed.) Wir sehen Robinson39s gauzy Flashbacks zu seinem einst glücklich Familie, gefolgt von seiner Karriere Wahl. Unter solchen Umständen gibt es in der Regel eine ungleiche Teilung in den Abteilungen des eventuellen Zuges, sollten sie es schaffen, die versunkenen Sub zu finden und das Gold zu extrahieren. Aber Law39s Skipper kennt die Männer alle arbeiten gleichermaßen hart, alle unter gleichem Risiko, und er regiert das Gold ist gleichmäßig unter allen Männern geteilt werden, was zu keinen kleinen Böen von Wut, Neid, Murren und Unzufriedenheit. Die Kinematographie ist in Ordnung, die Bewältigung der klaustrophobischen und alten des Handwerks zu vermitteln, aber die Erfassung der Mann zu Mann, um Menschen Interaktionen in Leben und Tod begegnet. Zuschauer werden mit jedem Haar-Trigger Entscheidung und Krise ergriffen. Die Geschichte, so straff wie sie ist, ist eine Erleichterung, die zu einer Zeit von Angelina Jolie erschreckt, aber wahrhaftig UNBROKEN ist, Hawkings verkrüppelte Präsenz in THE THEORY ALL ALLES und Turing zerebralen, aristokratischen IMITATIONS SPIEL. Es geht um die Erholung von Millionen von Dollars im Wert von unentdecktem Gold, nicht existentieller Katastrophe und zivilisatorischem Schicksal. Es ist ein männlicher Film, ein entlastender Film, wie ein trou Normandmdashit löscht die zu brutale Speisekarte von Realien aus dem durchschnittlichen filmgoer39s Gaumen. Es ist ein angespanntes, männliches Engagement und enthüllt, wie Männer auf ihrem Oberteil Zusammenarbeit, Furcht, Konkurrenz für Spitzenhund und 8230 in solchen Fällen Gier behandeln. Allerdings, bestimmte Hunde in bestimmten Ländern, abhängig von den Menschen, die sie beeinflussen, in einem Monat von Engeln zu knurrende Dämonen wenden. Ich erlernte viel in den letzten sieben Monaten, die ungefähr acht Hundepakete von 5-10 Tieren jedes kämpfen, indem sie durch alles umgeben werden, das innerhalb vier Fuß ndash Frontseite, Rückseite und jede Seite schnappt. Das Beste, was zu tun ist, um wieder in eine Ecke. Andernfalls wird das schnellste Alpha sprinte herum und versuchen Sie, die Oberschenkel Sie durch Beißen in den Rücken. Es ist unmöglich, 360 Grad zu beobachten, also, wenn man ohne Plan oder geistige Wiederholung umkreist ist, wird Blut sicher fließen. Deine. It39s genau die gleiche Technik, die ich auf einem National Geographic Film von Packungen von 6-10 Wölfen jeder Aufnahme Caribou, Hirsche, Elche oder sogar Bisons in Alaska sah. Es sei denn, die Beute kann die Raubtiere (nicht ich nicht mehr), oder zurück in eine Ecke, so gibt es keine wirkliche Seite oder hinteren Angriff, oder eine Waffe greifen, dann ist man an der Gnade der Eckzähne. Dies geschah mir nie, obwohl ich zweimal wöchentlich von den Peru-Amazonas-Straßenhunden in verschiedenen Spaziergängen gebissen wurde, wo ich spazieren ging. Die beiden primären Kampftechniken waren die Auswahl der Alpha (meist der größte Mann), und laden Sie es ignorieren die versuchten Nips aus dem Rest. Sobald Sie das Alpha in die Zähne treten und er jammern, der Rest Rückzug. In dem gemeinen Fall des schnellsten Hundes, der um Ende läuft, um hinter Ihnen zu erhalten, drehe ich immer und sofort jagen es versuchend, es zu treten. Sie müssen es schnell, weil, wie Sie sich zu Gesicht es den Rest der Packung eilt Ihre Fersen drehen. Dieser Hund ist der schnellste, in der Regel die tapfersten, und sobald es Reißverschlüsse aus dem Rest folgt seinem Weg weg von Ihrem Körper. Einmal bekam ich diese Strategien nach unten, ich freute mich wirklich auf den Nachmittag oder Nacht Workouts der Kampf gegen die Packs nach einem langen Stint in der 39office39, und es war erholsam vor dem Schlafengehen. Traurig, um für einen Tierarzt zu sagen, zog ich psychologische Kriegsführung an, um die Flut zu drehen, um vom Gehen psychologisch rabid mich zu halten. Ich kannte den Hund Alpha von jedem der acht Päckchen in einem Blinzeln in einem Block Abstand ist es in der Regel der größte Mann, aber fast so oft die dümmsten, die meisten furchtlosen sagen, wie Pitbulls und Bulldoggen. Meine psychische Kriegsführung war, sie während ihres Schlafes, besonders während eines Nachtregens, zu stieleln und sie direkt in die Schädel zu treten. Wenn Sie in Auge, Ohr, Nase oder Zähne treten, kann es dauerhafte Schäden verursachen, aber ich wollte mich nur als dominant etablieren. Mein Fuß machte hart Kontakt zwanzig Mal im Laufe der Monate mit den verschiedenen schlafenden Alphas, so hart wie Fußball-Punts, aber ihre Köpfe sind so hart, dass es wie ein 8-köpfiger Felsen Felsen war. Ich wechselte die Füße über die Wochen, die darauf warteten, dass die Schmerzen weggingen. Ich habe keine Zehennägel links auf jede meiner großen Zehen aus diesem. Dann kommt der psychologische Teil ins Spiel ndash ein harter Kopf getreten schlafen Hund erwacht sofort und instinktiv dreht und beißt am Fuß. Es gibt eine zweite Sekunde, um ein zweites Mal mit demselben oder besser dem entgegengesetzten Fuß zu treten, und ungefähr eine Sekunde nach deinem ersten Kick registriert das Tier Schmerzen, die Augen sind stumpf, und es verwelkt sich vor Schmerzen mit einem versteckten Schwanz. Jetzt ist die Zeit, ihm durch den Regen für Blöcke zu folgen, nicht ließ es liegen, ruhen oder schlafen für etwa dreißig Minuten. Es ist einfacher, als du denkst, weil jedes Alpha nach ein paar Minuten wieder an die gleiche Stelle zurückkehrt, also lasse ich einfach warten, wie sie es mit mir getan haben und halten sie wach und bewegen. Es ist eine Kombination von Schmerz und Schlafentzug, und nach ein paar Nächten von diesem, ohne zu versagen, wird die Alpha nicht mehr führen die Packung in Angriff. Stattdessen senkt es den Kopf in eine kauernde Geste und schmollt ab, wenn er mich kommt, gefolgt von den anderen. Das ist die Zeit, um auf der Hut zu sein für Angriffe von Straßenleuten, die wie sie leben und sich in Bands einfühlen. I know this from hundreds of encounters with the same packs in the past few months in the Amazon where the dogs have turned nasty with a sudden rise in consciousness of the people who now treat the dogs like second, instead of equal, citizens. These are the techniques to beat fallen canine angels. And they worked on people too. Pitt T. Maner III suggests: These high frequency deterrents called zappers work fairly well and could be easily shipped to Peru. At least it would make an interesting study. Marion Dreyfus writes: When I rented a house on a hilltop at End of The World, Zimbabwe, baboons made increasingly aggressive encroachments toward me and the house. I remember saying to the park ranger, who came and shot the baboons dead: quotOnce they are no longer afraid of people, they will rip your face off. We must kill them to keep that from happening. quot Andy writes: A recent study on Montana and Wyoming data indicates that killing wolves leads to increased depredation of farm livestock. One theory proposed is that shooting the alpha breaks the discipline of the pack and leads to more independent wolf breeding pairs. These rogue lone attackers are more likely to predate livestock than an alpha led pack. The researchers did not find a drop in the depredation until gt25 of them were destroyed, which corresponds to their population39s rate of increase. The idea for a rancher is to avoid killing the alpha unless he can and will take out more than 25 of the population of the wolves. Tonight I went for my usual 5k walk. I plugged in my ear phones and hit my Pandora app and had to decide between my stations. I was in the mood for some rock, so I choose the appropriate station, turned the volume to the right level and set off my journey. About 34 of the way through my walk, I was heard a special treat. The studio demo version of the Lynyrd Skynyrd39s quotFree Birdquot. Now, I39m sure most, if not all, of you are familiar with that Free Bird. It is, IMHO, one of the 3 greatest rock songs of all time (the other two being Layla and Stairway to Heaven). But I had never heard the studio demo version before. What is unique about this particular song is how different, yet similar, it is to the album version or the live version (I prefer the live version8230.quotplay it pretty for Atlantaquot). Free Bird starts out as a ballad, but then, kicks into high gear with the famous 1970s style guitar jam. When the studio demo version kicks into high gear, it starts out with the screaming lead guitar for a few moments8230then the lead guitar stops, and all you hear for the next few minutes are the rhythm guitars. Anyone who knows Free Bird know that lead guitar jams long and hard for at least 5 minutes straight. It is an unmistakeable 5 minutes of classic rock guitar licks that anyone with even a passing appreciation of classic rock will know and recognize. But on the demo version, the quotjamquot portion is mainly rhythm guitars for almost the entire time. What was very interesting to me is that even though there were only rhythm guitars playing for most of the song, in my head, I could not help but hear the lead guitar8230even though they were not there. I tried very hard to concentrate on the rhythm guitars and appreciate what I was hearing. Heck, I sorta played in garage band in my teens and I played the rhythm portion of Free Bird many times quotback in the dayquot. But no matter how hard I tried, my mind forced me to hear the absent lead guitar. Listening to this demo version of Free Bird got me thinking about the markets and my investing strategies. How many things happen around me that I just assume are there8230.but really aren39t8230..whether in my life as a father or as an investment adviser When I vet money managers to place my clients money with, how much I am superimposing (is that the right word) what I think I should be hearingseeing over what is really going on When are there subtle (or not so subtle) changes that I miss because the meme playing in my head tricks me into hearingseeing what I expect to be there I39m going to refocus myself to see if I39m really hearing what I think I39m hearing8230.or whether there are some missing lead guitar illusions that are clouding my judgement. I pose this question to the group: How might one go about doing that In the meantime82308230..here39s the YouTube link to the demo version of the Free Bird. Try and listen to it without hearing the absent lead guitars(also, bonus points if you spot the difference in lyrics): And to give some context to those that don39t know the song, here39s the album version of the same song. And I39d be remiss if I didn39t include my favorite version of the song (play it pretty for Atlanta). And just because it39s so tasty, I39ll throw in a little semi-obscure Skynyrd hit: Curtis Lowe Leo Jia writes: Reality or illusion I like to study the topic, and learn how to tell the difference or whether there is a difference. One believes something to be real when the 5 senses send signals to the mind and the mind says thus it is real. That is what reality means to most people. What if one39s 5 senses were altered The mind then has no way to tell. Think about virtual reality. Though the current technology is not fully there to truly alter the 5 senses, it demonstrates how the mind determines reality. Actually, the concept of virtual reality itself tells that there is not a real line between reality and illusion. It is all mixed together. Do we live in the world or does the world exist within oneself I am more inclined to the latter. Scott Brooks writes: Great points, Leo. I like illusions as well. My youngest son is into magic and illusions and does a pretty fun show for kids birthday parties. Even though I know how the illusion works, it is still fascinating and fun. But I39d like to take it a step deeper. I know when I39m being tricked when watching my son or a Penn and Teller show. But what about when I have no idea that I39m being deceived8230.or even deeper, when I39m the one doing the deceiving, and I39m both the deceiver and the mark (i. e. self deception). I39d like to know how I can clear my head of those times. But8230..how do I know what I don39t know that I don39t know Rocky39s Ghost writes: Excellent post, Scott Thanks for sharing. Rocky believes that, when speculating (as distinct from investing), more important than seeing one39s own ghosts, is seeing everyone else39s ghosts. For example, in his early days, Rocky would occasionally find bona fide arbitrages in the options markets. However, the ability to monetize the arbitrages relied on OTHER PEOPLE also seeing the arbitrage and closing it. If you are the only sane man, you will likely go bankrupt long before others realize that you are the only sane man. Or, put another way, when the lunatics are running the asylum, it pays to trade as a lunatic 8212 while remaining mindful that they are indeed lunatics. Now where did Rocky leave his bottle of Clozapine All the testing I have done on stops indicates they work exactly as you would expect. They reduce risk and they also reduce expected return. Sometime they reduce the return to breakeven or negative in which case its better off just not to trade. In other cases they eliminate bankruptcy risk and allow for some return, but not the expected return you get without stops. It seems to fit right in with EMT, CAPM and practical ideas on markets regarding risk and return. If you are selling disaster risk, you expect to be paid for it. Ralph Vince writes: Or, expressed in terms of their effect: Total Return (A2 - V)(Q2) - 1 Where A Average return per trade (expressed as a multiple, i. e. 1.0 return) V Variance in the A39s Q total number of A39s When stops reduce V more than they increase A2, it pays to use them. I suggest conducting tests on this, it is far more revealing (in terms of the distribution of the A39s) then meets the (rolling) eye(s) when looking at the simple equation. It can be interesting to open up a quote list and view the prices with a mindset that you haven39t looked at the market in months or years. Oil here, bonds there, etc. And then process your initial reaction. The loss of a nail caused the loss of a war. It all starts with the horrific having two positions on opposite sides at same time. Worse yet is the use of mental stops with the idea that the broker can39t read your mind. Andrew Goodwin writes: Voice brokers know the locations of the stops and the times when they will make margin calls or force liquidations. The broker does not need to read your particular mind to know the levels that once hit will create more trading activity. Mental stops fail because a broker can extrapolate the actionable levels from the inside view of the collective levered positions and stops given by other clients. Bejan39s basic premise is that everything in nature is a flow. There are the obvious flows of things like water (rivers, blood) or air (lungs, air distributions systems), etc. In addition, he discusses flows of stress, for example, in the arrangement of the limbs on a tree, or the flow of animate mass, e. g. when a herd of animals runs or school of fish swims. His premise is that living systems are continuously changing and adapting their configuration to maximize the quotcurrents that flow throughquot them. Even the building of the Egyptian pyramids, he argues, represents the flow of stones from a broad area to a single point (the pyramid). Here quotlivingquot systems (both animate and inanimate, such as rivers or pyramids being built) are constantly evolving and changing their configuration. When a system stops reconfiguring its flows, it dies: a dried-out river bead, dead animal, or completed pyramid receives no further maintenance, i. e. there is no more reconfiguration when something is dead. Here is a Q amp A on the concept of Constructal Design by a Forbes reporter and Bejan that has things described in less technical terms than his paper. In terms of applying these concepts to trading, it seems to me that the obvious entity that flows is money. One concern that I have, however, in adapting Bejan39s ideas to a trading model is that, in the flows that he is describing, there is always a driving force from high to low: gravity pulls water down a landscape, a pressure differential drives air in and out of the lungs, a disturbance or threat forces animals to run in the opposite direction. As a result, all of the flows that he is describing are one-way, or unidirectional. This central to his entire theory, as the opposite behavior is prohibited from the Second Law of Thermodynamics: heat does not move from cold objects to hot on its own, rivers do not flow uphill, air does not come out of the lungs when the diaphragm expands to reduce the pressure in the lungs to draw air in, dropping the broken pieces of a coffee cup on the floor will never result in re-assembled cup, etc. Thus it would seem that a critical element in adapting Bejan39s ideas for trading will revolve around describing a driving force for the flow of money. This is really your expertise far more than mine, but let me start the dialog by suggesting that the driving force for money is the perceived potential for money growth (PPMG). 39Perceived Potential39 here implies that there is an opportunity to make a profit from an investment, but that the outcome is not necessarily guaranteed (think of Enron and Bernie Madoff). Reconfiguration, also a key tenant to Bejan39s ideas, happens with the flow of money from one instrument to the next. If we now draw the analog of a river basin, and that high PPMG is analogous to a low point in the flow of water over a landscape, then it can be seen that money will flow from regions of low potential (elevated areas, mountainsides) to regions of high potential (low areas, valleys). The lower the elevation, the more rapidly money will flow into it. What complicates the analysis is that PPMG is a dynamic quantity. A company can be very profitable at one point in time (Kodak, General Motors, Blackberry), and thus have considerable growth potential, but over time, its growth potential can change. This is analogous to the river basin landscape changing constantly in elevation, and having the flow adjust accordingly. This does happen in nature as well, of course, both slowly (Colorado RiverGrand Canyon) or quickly (earthquakevolcano). Such a time-varying landscape would be important to include in a trading model. I think that the above would be a bare minimum to implement the ideas that Bejan is putting forth. I did do a quick search to see if people were using these ideas for trading (in particular) or financeeconomics, but I did not find much. This is not a surprise: Bejan39s ideas are new and different and thus will take some time to permeate to other areas. This, in itself, is an opportunity to seize the advantage. The risk, is, of course, that the ideas may not have significant utility in trading to upset the state-of-the-art now in place, and thus will not pay off after time spent trying to integrate them. This is the risk of adopting any new technologyidea, I suppose. Anyway, there you have it: my rather disjointed ideas on the matter. I would be interested to see if Bejan39s ideas could prove to be of utility for trading. Jon Longtin, Ph. D. P. E. Professor Department of Mechanical Engineering 159 Light Engineering Bldg. State University of New York at Stony Brook Stony Brook, NY 11794-2300 QEe (QE euro) seems to be moving forward. So why did gold, which has had some strength over the past month, not budge at the news the way currencies did anonymous writes: The theory I am working on in my head and was hoping to have time to write about tonight is as follows: QE depends upon a central bank quotcartelquot all agreeing to do it in unison and or in staggered phases. The cartel allows them to get away with this absurd policy without immediately wrecking the currency as compared to other currencies they don39t seem to be devaluing. Switzerland broke the cartel. This means that the future of QE is in fact in jeopardy and will be more limited than otherwise. anonymous writes: Isn39t that the path off all cartels of gt 1 players (Debeers), Look at OPEC post 1974. Like the prisoner39s dilemma, the quotcartel participant, quot game would call for a certain, upside price where the first member jumps ship, with a phony justification for their greed trumping the purpose of the cartel. anonymous replies: Yes of course. Only in this case instead of restricting the supply, the deal was to expand the supply. In the old days when Kuwait broke from the cartel and cheated it brought oil down more than just by the amount of Kuwait39s extra production because once one member of the cartel cheats everyone else is going to. It39s the same thing here. Once SNB broke, others will be tempted to as well. This isn39t talked about in the press because of the insane and incorrect notion that your currency going up is somehow a bad thing, so the mainstream all think that the Swiss are somehow hurting themselves. Alston Mabry writes: But the alt version is that they weren39t playing along because their EUR purchases were putting upward pressure on EUR, counter to ECB39s strategy. anonymous replies: What ECB, US, and Japan would have wanted is for the SNB to devalue along with them. SNB wasn39t going to do that. Now, all of QE depends on the big lie that you are not really printing money and not really devaluing the currency. Any time someone says quotyou39re printing moneyquot the response is met with quotyou just don39t understandquot followed by a description of the complicated process of QE and how it39s not really printing money. But the fallback position for the QE39ers is quotlook, there39s no inflation (no consumer inflation. it39s in assets) and quotthe currency isn39t being devaluedquot. The SNB39s peg kept the ECB being able to claim they weren39t destroying the currency. The SNB undoing of the peg reveals that the emperor has no clothes and they are, in fact, going to destroy the currency. Alston Mabry responds: It may be true that claims were made about the EUR on the basis of the CHF cross. But I find compelling the narrative that Mario called up Thomas Jordan and said quotlook, unless you39re willing to print tens of B of extra SFrs a month, you39re not gonna be able to keep up. quot And Jordan, knowing that technically the SNB could do it but politically internally couldn39t, said quotyou39re rightquot and they dropped the cap. The RSP (equal-weighted) SampP index ETF is well-known. Less known is the RYE (equal-weighted energy sector ETF). It has only existed since about 2006. Equal-weighted ETF39s give a larger weighting to smaller-capitalization stocks and, to the extent that individual stocks approach zero, they engage in the Rocky pastime of quotscaling down to oblivionquot. That is, If cap weighted indices quotride the trend, quot equal-weighted indices sell the winners and add to the losers on each rebalancing. Might anyone have some insights about whether such a practice is inherently superior or inferior over time And especially for a (distressed) sector index Kora Reddy writes: But the academic literature suggest otherwise: quotequal-weighting is a contrarian strategy that exploits the quotreversalquot in stock pricesquot (see this pic) . Except in Australia, equi-weighted outperformed the cap-weighted in major countries. Gordon Haave writes: I wrote about this 6-7 years ago when the first Wisdom Tree stuff came out and they were talking about how equal weighted was superior to cap weighted and showed the back-tested numbers. All they were really saying is that quotover time small caps beat large capsquot which isn39t exactly news. To call a equal weighted index and quotindexquot is itself misleading. A cap weighted index is quotthe marketquot or some approximation thereof. Theoretically every single market player could go passive and be in it. You can39t do that with an equal weighted index (or at least not without distorting prices). As to your idea of how they have to double down on the loses that is somewhat limited by the fact that once the name falls out of the index it is dropped. Larry Williams comments: Along that line Our work shows it is better to invest equal dollar amounts vs equal share amounts Gibbons Burke adds: I know a fund which used to invest 90 of client stake in SPX via SPY. A couple of years ago they switched to 10 equal dollar investment in each of the nine sector select spdr ETFs, with the intent of rebalancing to equal dollar allocation annually. They found, in testing, the strategy provided an average of 200 bps of boost each year over the cap-weighted all-SPY investment. anonymous writes: Regarding a depressed sector, is there any truth to the adage: quotBuy the stock that has gone down the least, and also the one that has gone down the mostquot. The strong stock will come back smartly and the oversold weak stock will come up from being smashed on a higher percentage then the middle of the pack. So if this is true you could design your own basket of strong stock leaders in the depressed sector mixed with oversold beaten down stocks that pass a screening survival test. Erich Eppelbaum adds: Theoretically speaking, re-balancing a portfolio by using the winnings to buy more of the losers is at the heart of the only portfolio selection methodology that I know of that mathematically guarantees to asymptotically outperform the best stock included in the portfolio (See Thomas Cover39s Universal Portfolio seminal 1991 paper): pdf link. I don39t know if in real life the portfolios resulting from this methodology are inferior or superior over time to those created by rebalancing based on allocating more to the winners (such as a market cap weighted portfolio) I would assume that any result would depend heavily on the rebalancing costs and slippage (the liquidity of big vs small stocks matter, especially when trying to push size), and I would assume that the slippage incurred in a market cap weighted portfolio would be less than that incurred in a equal weight portfolio (less small company shares to buysell). In reference to a previous post, another thing to consider is that perhaps there are many effects at play other than the small-cap quotmore-risk-more-rewardquot effect. For example, a sell-the-winners-buy-the-losers methodology could be profiting partly by say the volatility harvesting effect described by Claude Shannon . This brings up another question: The volatility harvesting effect becomes greater as the volatility of the portfolio39s underlying stocks increases. In the stock market, volatility usually increases when the market falls. Could this mean that an equal weightedrebalanced portfolio would outperform a market cap weighted portfolio during bad times and would the opposite be true during good times Would be interesting to test8230 I make an unapologetic forecast that by Friday, the EU thumb-sucking backscratchers in the markets will realize that Draghi must resign. The emperor has no clothes. Hello USDEUR parity. Stefan Martinek writes: My unapologetic forecast is that USDEUR will go below parity and somewhere around 0.6-0.8 German voters will decide to leave the party. Euro is too strong for weak members, and too weak for strong ones 8212 it does not fit anybody. Political will will change and the path of least resistance will change as well. Nothing dramatic will happen at that point. The world will function as usual, Schengen area will stay in place, winter resorts in Alps will be nice and functioning. Most forecast are usually wrong 8230 The Swiss National Bank (SNB) in a way played a good game of 3 Card Monty the past few years with market participants. The winning card was where the rate was going to be. On September 6, 2011 the SNB set a peg for the EuroSwiss rate at 1.2 when prevailing market rates where approximately 1.1, a depreciation of the Swiss Franc of about 9. Between September 6, 2011 and January 15, 2015 the EuroSwiss rate traded between 1.20 and 1.2650, a roughly 5 range. On January 15, 2015 the SNB removed the 1.2 floor and at the extreme the EuroSwiss market rate went close to .8500, a move of about 30. Who played the game Who controlled the cards Who were the shills I could not help but recall my own adventures in 3 Card Monty and loss of a 50 bill as a student playing Holden Caulfield in Times Square circa 1983. What trading lessons might there be in the move by the SNB and subsequent moves in markets How can these lessons be embodied to provide a future playbook of offensive and defensive plans Following some delirium from trading the markets the past few days some clarity came to mind on some runs the past day or two. First, some empathy to all have may lost in the market this past week. One close friend of many years described the feeling just 30 minutes after the SNB decision by saying quot I feel like I just got my leg blown off, I can barely think straightquot. 10 rules, lessons, and examples I have found effective and illustrative. 1. Find and trade markets where your edge is the greatest. 2. Avoid markets were the probability of rule changes and lack of transparency is present. 3. Think of and imagine market scenarios others fail to. 4. Fundamental macroeconomic forces will ultimately prevail. 5. Trading time frames and profit objectives though must coincide with what the market is giving you at any one time. 6. Quantify risk with a multidimensional perspective, not just by one or two measures such as VAR or a price stop. 7. Learn from history. Jay Gould and his attempts to corner the gold markets in the late 186039s. The Russian default of 1917 and 1998. The European Rate Mechanism break up. The Tequila crisis of 1994. The Asian financial crisis. 8. Be deadly serious, as Gichin Funakoshi said quotYou must be deadly serious in trainingquot. If you have a position make it a meaningful size and monitor it carefully. I recall many comments from fellow traders the past few years saying something like quotI am long EuroSwiss just to have some on but not really watching it. quot 9. Define and use a trading methodology that incorporates a process and framework that works for you. Inclusive in this should be a daily routine that includes diet, exercise, family time, etc. 10. Seek out catalysts for CHANGE in markets. Where are the forces, in a Newtonian like law of motion, building up the greatest to cause a CHANGE and movement in markets What further elaborations and examples might there be Stefan Martinek writes: I was thinking about it recently. Great list. I would only add: (a) Be prepared that liquidity in any market can disappear regardless of historical data or experience (b) Mind counterparty risk. Anatoly Veltman writes: Excellent lessons from John. The dilemma here is of common variety, though. Similar to an individual smaller stock: you39re either an insider, or a mark. In case of the SNB last few years: you were either in bed with the devil, or you were exposed to a chance of a -100000 annualized loss on any given random day My recollection of the marketing pitches for retail focused FX platforms was that they had some parallels to the bucket shops described by LeFevre, particularly one of them who advertised that one of your account features could be quotno margin calls. quot If a position went against you by a particular threshold, the broker would automatically close it out, so you would have no quotsurprises. quot anonymous writes: FXCM stock (a listed US company) is indicated down 75 this morning. They issued a statement that the CHF move quotgenerated negative equity balances owed to FXCM of approximately 225 million. quot As of 93014, their stated equity book value was 262.7 million (source: Bloomberg) 8212 so if their book value is real 8212 then this particular problem can be contained. Interactive Brokers stock is indicated down 10 this morning. They have made no public statements so far. But as we39ve seen time and again, broker-dealers rely on customer confidence and should a large number of customers start withdrawing collateral, this could spiral. Hence silence isn39t golden. Ed Stewart writes: A few things about IBKR. First, is is a much more highly capitalized than financial statements at first suggest, as only 15 of the company trades on the exchange, the rest is owned by managers and (mostly, if i recall 75) by CEO Peterffy. As of the last quarterly report, excess regulatory capital stood at 3.25B. SampP credit rating A - Stable, zero long term debt. Anyone who has traded there is aware that relative to other brokers they are very conservative on margining issues, etc. Also, they don39t have the business model of bucketing all of the trades on their FX platform like most retail platforms do. The IB FX ecn mostly allows IB customers to trade with other IB customers and other banks, though they are also a market maker there. In other words it is a much, much stronger business than the crappy retail FX companies. The other issue that is hitting the company recently (hurt their results last quarter and almost certainly this quarter) Is that they keep their equity in a basket of 16 currencies that they call the GLOBAL, so they are getting hit by the strong dollar. I could be wrong I think a currency peg blowing up is the kind of thing their risk department and peterffy would identify as a risk and substantially mitigate, especially if they had retail traders trading in masse against the peg the way the other forex platforms had. This is based on my reading most of Peterffy39s writing and conference calls over the last few years, I could be dead wrong. If there is a bad quarter out of this but the damage is not too bad I think it might end up a solid buying opportunity. It was my largest stock holding in tax deferred accounts till yesterday when I dumped most of it. Garrett Baldwin adds: Global Brokers NZ has failed and Alpari U. K. is insolvent. anonymous writes: What am I missing Why should a retail broker go under because a currency moved Were they trading against their customers as opposed to just executing orders Anatoly Veltman writes: If they don39t call for margin, they end up owning position. How could they do anything with a position thru the entire initial bidless 20 gap They obviously did rush to liquidate on the small bounce and that39s how the new low was made (look up intraday chart) 83 years ago. It39s a very good read, and appropriate for the time, but government interactions in the grain markets, wars, and international trade have rendered much of this obsolete. Still, it39s a good picture of the level of scholarship that was applied to the wheat markets 83 years ago. Much has changed from then to now, but one thing never changes. The best and brightest of any generation will always drill down, and try to find a way to beat a single market. 1. The Swiss franc is up about 17 this morning. This is unprecedented in recent history. That is a BLACK SWAN. A BLACK SWAN is an event that you have not read to be predicted on Zero Hedge or anywhere else. This cannot happen without reverberations 8212 and could be destabilizing 8212 and volatility inducing in unexpected places. 2. This could be the ultimate no-confidence vote in the Euro currency. 3. It makes Bitcoin39s move of 23 yesterday look quaint. anonymous writes: The most obvious conclusions to draw: 1) Further downward pressure on the Euro currency 2) Further downward pressure on global yield curves 3) Further loss of confidence in central banks More derivative thoughts to consider: a. Impact of forced liquidation of short CHF trades and potential subsequent reduction in risk and positions b. Impact on CHF funding trades in places like Hungary and Poland c. Impact on Swiss economy given where the currency and rates settle d. Impact on SNB flows e. Impact on ECB meeting next week in terms of QE The Fundamental Dilemma of all market manipulation, whether legal (as in this case) or illegal: when you stop pushing up the value of an asset, it falls back, giving you mark to market losses on your inventory. Today the SNB is taking tremendous losses on the Euro assets it has accumulated in its Euro buying binge. I would not want to be a private shareholder of the SNB (or a swiss taxpayer) on a day like this. Speaking of round numbers, the euroswiss must want to end up close to parity of 1. It will make it so much easier to do all the conversion at Davos. I notice that the Dow is down already and I note that gas is 1.86 this morning overnight from 1.92 here in Southern Ohio. Many empty rentals around my area. Many people, due to oil production in my area, have been been priced out of renting. I have several empty units but have found over the years people don39t move over the holidays nor the cold winter months unless evicted or just moving into the area. A complete background check will sort through any of those issues. Gary Rogan writes: There is enormous destruction going on of all kinds of daring, innovative oil drillers, the best of the best, which will produce damage that may last many years, as well as many traditional oil, infrastructure, transportation, etc, etc, companies but all people care about is the price of gas. Isn39t that selfish Pitt T. Maner III writes: It will be interesting to see the impacts to natural gas supplies as the number of drill rigs in operation decreases. quotIn fact, the current natural gas rig count remains 80 below its all-time high of 1,606 reached in late summer 2008. In the year-ago period, there were 372 active natural gas rigs. quot This paper gives an idea of the relationship between drilling new wells and production. Talking to a friend: quotIf a year ago somebody had said just put everything in zeroes and utilities and then forget about it until January 2015, what would we have thought of that suggestionquot And then I wondered: What is it now that would sound just as stupid As the days lengthen and the crocuses bloom, as the buzz of spring approaches, one39s thoughts turn to the icon of the warmer times of the year: baseball. Over the weekend, I was talking to a neighbor about the coming season, and he commented about the changing styles of ballparks and their effect on the game and how it39s played. Consider: Yankee Stadium is often referred to as the House that Ruth Built. I had always understood that to be a reference to the size of the ballpark. When it opened in 1923, Yankee Stadium was 60-70 percent bigger in seating than other ballparks8211accommodating the fan interest in the King of Swat. But one could argue that the moniker The House that Ruth Built was as much about the dimensions of the field as about the size of the stands. Yankee Stadium had incredibly shallow depths along the foul lines8211under 300 feet. While no one would question Ruth39s ability to belt out home runs, the quantity of those hit at home was likely aided by the short distance to the foul pole. Perhaps that39s the reason Ruth39s (and Gehrig39s) power is shown so well in extra base hits. Those aren39t helped so much by a shortened outfield. Compare Jacobs Field (now Progressive Field) in Cleveland, or Oriole Park at Camden Yards, with 320-330 along the foul lines. (The short lines were not strictly a Yankee Stadium characeteristic. Ebbets Field and Fenway Park, for instance, both had similarly short foul lines.) Big difference. (It wasn39t until 1958, tough, that dimensions like those of Yankee Stadium would be considered unacceptable under the MLB rules for new ball parks.) As we were talking, I thought about the different eras in the construction of baseball parks. There was first the innovator era, when the owners built the parks and often named the parks for themselves. Wrigley Field, for instance, named for the owner of the Cubs who play there. Not that Wrigley built the park, he just named it after himself during the late 1920s. Comiskey Park was built and named for the White Sox owner, Ebbetts Field in Brooklyn, Griffith Stadium (Washington Senators), Shibe Park (renamed Connie Mack Stadium) (Philadelphia As), and so on. (Not all were so named, though Forbes Field in Pittsburgh, for instance, was named for the soldier in the French and Indian War who named the city.) It was in this cohort of ballpark that the quotclassicalquot design took hold. It would hold sway until after World War 2, when the next era of ballparks would arrive, typified by Memorial Stadium (quotThe Old Grey Lady on 33rd Streetquotor quotThe World39s Largest Outdoor Insane Assylum, quot take your pick) in Baltimore. (At one time, at 34th and Charles Streets, by the Entrance to Johns Hopkins39s Homewood campus, there was a bust of Johns Hopkins on an island in the street. When Memorial Stadium opened, so the story goes, there was such confusion about where the stadium was8211many drivers thinking the bust was for some athlete, insisted on turning onto 34th Street, with lots of accidents, as the traffic signals were not set for lots of left turning traffic (many drivers jumping the light)8211that the bust was moved to the side of the road. At least that was the story on the Homewood campus, particularly the university39s historian during the centennial commemoration of its founding. This new cohort of ballparks was designed for mixed use8211not as a ballpark for which some other sport might be tolerated. That meant some compromises. They still abided by the general feel of the first round8211the quotowners39 roundquot8211of parks. Bricks and such, but they also started strut some steel materials were used to have the ballparks quotfit inquot with the surrounding community, though how something as big could quotfit inquot isn39t so straightforward. One other interesting feature to this round: Unlike the prior round, in which the teams financed the construction of the park, now municipalities were doing so. Perhaps that was the beginning of the myth that ballparks pay for themselves. At least for the baseball season, with 81 games played, I can see how there might at least be an argument for economic benefit, but for football. In any case, this round of ballparks lasted into the 1960s. It may not harken the same loyalty that the owners39 round would8211but when the baby boomers went to the park, it was as often as not one of the newer parks, and so the newer parks were embedded with pleasant memories in their brains, unless of course they were Senators39 fans, in which case I can39t talk about any association of pleasantry since my recollection of the Senators in that era was of a team more consistent with A-AA ball than the big show. And some days, sandlot might be applicable (except when Frank Howard was hitting well they didn39t look so bad then8211even the defense seemingly performed on those days). width392 height232 The Astrodome ushered in the quotmodernquot era of ballparks. It was domed8211that was new. It had a space age look (befitting its location in Houston)8211that was new. It was big8211that was new (well, it was in Texas). No longer would the fans enjoy the proximity to the field of the earlier eras. Houston being a major petrochemical center, it39s not surprising that the Astrodome also ushered in Astroturf, a plastic pseudograss that bears as much similarity to its living counterpart as an aluminum Christmas tree does to the living (or at least formerly living) one (or if you prefer, ox to bull, or McDonald39s shake to those available at many of the remaining diners still operating in the US). I39ll leave aside the issue of whether real baseball can be played on pseudograss8211a field lacking the sweet scent of mowed green blades, all in support of that most pristine shape in sports, the baseball diamond8211or has to be played on the real thing to qualify as quotrealquot baseball. There are also variations on this theme8211for instance, no dome, or a retrievable cover. Perhaps the peak of the third age can be found in the Hubert H. Humphrey Metrodome, know affectionately in the Twin Cities, prior to its demise, as the West Bank Marshmallow. It may remain as the only site in which an MLB game was snowed out by a 15 inch blizzard on May 15, 19868211without a snowflake ever touching the field. The Metrodome was a hitter39s paradise. Four baggers would go flying out faster than an F-18 off a carrier. Maybe that39s why Kirby Puckett liked playing for the Twins so much. Regardless, while there are many who probably liked the Metrodome, it always struck me as sterile. Indeed, that39s my complaint about the third age: the ballparks lacked character, identity. There was one thing I liked about the Metrodome, though: it was right by downtown. That was not a universal characteristic. It wasn39t a feature of ballparks until the fourth era, the one we are still in. In the fourth era, ballparks went back to the early 1900s to take their style cues. Sure, modern engineering enhanced the experience, with unobstructed views. And there were the skyboxes, rights to which flowed to the team39s bottom line. But with the style going back to the classic one of the early 20th century, one might term it retro. Fans like the effect. Ballparks built over the past two decades have been designed in the retro style. Bricks, old style grillwork, often located near downtowns, and so on. Character was not absent in these places. The trend started with the building of Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Oriole Park was part of a grander scheme to revitalize Baltimore39s downtown. First, there was Harborplace, then the Aquarium (site of Willy Don39s battle with the sea lions in 1981). And then, nothing. There were a few apartment houses built, a convention center, but not much else. Downtown Baltimore still felt incomplete. With the departure of the Colts in 1984, scurrying like a thief in the night at the end of March that year, with snow flurries in the air and a Governor whose campaign theme of honest government seemed to think that it prohibited him from intervening, Baltimore39s city elders realized the risks of the Orioles leaving Baltimore (I39m not sure the name would have moved as easily as quotColtsquot did) were there, and needed to be addressed. Back in the late 1970s, the Os39 owner, Edward Bennett Williams, complained that it took too long to get from Memorial Stadium back to DC and that Baltimore alone was too small of a market to support a baseball team. Enter the Mayor, who had the police tail Williams back to DC for the next three games that he attended. When Williams next complained about the troubles of leaving 33rd Street, he was met by the Mayor noting how quickly Williams made it back to his DC office (not noted was the speed that Williams39s limousine took to achieve those times, nor the anger among the State police that Williams8211a defense attorney8211that they were under strict orders not to issue a speeding ticket to that car). Williams never complained about it again. So the city elders caucused as they were wont to do, and they decided that Memorial Stadium, beloved as she was, likely was near the end of her useful life. Barely 30, and washed up. Thus began the planning for a new ballpark in downtown Baltimore, around which further downtown development would happen. There was mass transit emerging in the city (though why Baltimore needed a subway is beyond me), and I-95 right next door to facilitate ingress and egress. That was the plan, at any rate. It took a few years to get all the plans in place, but when Camden Yards was finished, it was magnificent. So much so that it kicked off the retro trend One of the nicest ballparks built with the retro theme is ATampT Park, the replacement for Candlestick Part in San Francisco. ATampT was built in part because not only was Candlestick not economically competitive in terms of skyboxes and the like but it was arguably the worst located park in the MLB. The winds off of San Francisco Bay would howl in the summer, so much that Fisherman39s Wharf and the Presidio seemed warm even during the summer. Had the park been built a mere 75 or so yards to the west, the winds would have been less of an issue. Ditto for orientation. The fog that enveloped Candlestick during night games was legendary8211not only for the associated temperature drops, but also the challenges it presented to the player, particularly in the outfield. One of the Alou brothers once noted that at Candlestick, you could see the pitcher throw the ball, you could see the batter hit the ball, but from then until the ball came down, the fielder had to rely on instinct8211you just couldn39t see the ball all the way through the air. This was the place, after all, where Stu Miller (he died a little over a week ago) was called for a balk during the 1961 All Star game played at the spanking new Candlestick Park. Miller always contended he hadn39t balked. No matter, that39s how it was scored Of course, many of the pre-retro parks are beloved by the fans. Dodger Stadium at Chavez Ravine is a great example. Woe to the visiting team fan at Dodger Stadium. Watching Koufax pitch at home was a delight, but the fans like the ambiance of the ball park itself. There are 37 more days before Orioles pitchers and catchers report. The recent events at Petrobras have taken the investment community by storm, and there is much discussion about when the right time is to get in. Bulls figure that given the reserves and the potential that the current price is cheap and will work out well in the long term despite the current scandals. I am usually an quotasset basedquot contrarian, but in this case I am not so sure. Let me give you my perspective: I39ve worked at both Devon and Kerr-Mcgee and had many friends at Chesapeake. To preface this post, I have never been a fan of quotmanagement guruquot books and find them to mostly be trash with little insight. That being said, an excellent book could be written about the resurgence of Oklahoma City and the contrasting fortunes of Kerr-McGee, Devon, and the one-time high-flying Chesapeake Energy over the years and the differing management styles at each company. Perhaps I should write it. However with the protagonist of this post now working for one of the antagonists the final chapter cannot yet be written. If you don39t want to read a few thousand words and just want the punchline it is this: Management and management culture matters, and Devon39s former CFO Jeff Agosta is one of the main reasons for Devon39s success whereas Kerr-McGee has disappeared and Chesapeake goes through recurring crises. Interestingly enough, Jeff is no longer at Devon and now works for former Chesapeake founder Aubrey McClendon39s new company, American Energy Partners. I will write more on that later on in this post. The story for me begins in the mid to late 199039s when I was working for my father39s money management firm. Chesapeake (CHK) was a high flying driller based on horizontal drilling in the Austin Chalk. Wall Street was heavily promoting CHK and it was one of the biggest quotmomentum playsquot on the street. My father didn39t believe it. Frankly, anyone with experience in the austin chalk knew that the decline curves were massive. This time it was supposed to be different because of CHK39s horizontal drilling. Horizontal drilling, however, wasn39t going to change the nature of the austin chalk as a play, it was just going to make the initial production bigger. The problem however was that these were new wells and there wasn39t much history. At the time getting well data was a pain. We had to subscribe to a Petroleum Institute service for around 10,000 dollars per year that sent us CD39s with county well data from Louisiana which was months out of date. Sure enough, the decline curves were massive. We talked to wall street analysts, and of course they didn39t care. CHK was everyone39s favorite. A few years later CHK almost went out of business as sure enough the decline curves were massive. That was the first time I heard the name Aubrey McClendon. The next time was the summer of 2003. I was sitting at my desk at the Zurich office of Kerr-McGee Luxembourg, (thank you IRS for creating such inefficiencies). I had very little to do. I was in Zurich for 2 months for a paid internship that was put together at the last minute because the employee whose job I was doing had a stroke and Kerr-McGee needed someone to take his place while he recovered. The head of the office was an American hired in 1999 (a rare outside the ranks hire). The rest of the staff was Swiss andor German. The European marketing team from the Chemicals unit (later spun off as Tronox) also shared these offices. European Chemicals marketing was run by a Kerr-Mcgee old timer who was one of the few still around from the Karen Silkwood days. The first sign that Kerr-McGee had issues was that I didn39t really have anything to do all day. By and large I was done with my job by 10am. In addition to my day job I was given a project to research the possibility of issuing euro-denominated bonds in Europe. The project didn39t take long. Other than that I had a lot of spare time. Someone in IT at the main office in Oklahoma City seemed to have the sole job of tracking my web surfing and blocking every site that wasn39t work or finance related. The Swiss like to take long lunches and usually have a few beers at lunch as well. A directive had come down from HQ that nobody was allowed to drink at lunch but my boss told us to do what I wanted as long as he didn39t see it. So, sometimes we would take 90 minute lunches by the seaside and have a couple of beers, but that still left the entire afternoon with little to do. I had brought a lot of textbooks with me to Zurich to study finance and economics but I burned through those pretty quickly. If I could do it all over again I would have spent the time learning German, although it was also when I first started to really study body language as I could not communicate verbally. It is really the subject of another post but from my time in Panama, Switzerland, Italy, Albania, Poland, etc. I have become somewhat of an expert in reading body language. Body language doesn39t lie. People do. I now like to sit in restaurants and watch body language. It is fun to spot which woman doesn39t like her date and just wants to get out of there as quickly as possible even vs. which guy is going to get lucky that night. I39m also good now at knowing when I am being lied to - although I have had a few spectacular failures in that regard. Back to Zurich: So I started spending my spare time looking for a permanent job. Simply searching quotenergy companies in Oklahoma Cityquot got by my IT censors and I quickly gathered up the names of all the big energies companies and their officers. By googling around the domain names you can always come up with the structure of corporate email addresses (i. e. firstname. lastname or whatever) because some employee somewhere has always used his or her work address to post on a random message board. So I sent out some emails to some Oklahoma City energy company executives. The emails read as follows: Hello, my name is Gordon Haave. I am currently working for Kerr-McGee in Zurich in the corporate Treasury department. Previously I have served as Vice-President of a 300 million money management firm and as the CFO of a 20 million residential construction firm. I am returning to Oklahoma City in August and am looking for a full time job if you have any available. quot Short and simple appeals work with some people and not with others. I got replies from both Jeff Agosta (then SVP of Finance and Treasurer of Devon) and Aubrey Mclendon (CEO of Chesapeake) Aubrey was very nice as everyone always says he is. We had a brief back and forth and after inquiring around the company he told me that there was nothing available but to stay in touch. Jeff responded basically with a quotyes we are looking for someone, come and see me when you get back to Oklahomaquot. That39s how I ended up working for Devon. However, I was still working at Kerr-Mcgee. Every day was frustrating as there was little to do, and everything I did have to do basically had zero value added. Let me explain: My primary job was ensuring the accurate cash forecast of Kerr-McGee39s North Sea oil and gas operations, and to ensure that cash balances were kept at a minimum so that they could be invested in time deposits. In the morning I had to make sure time deposits were properly received that were due that day, and in the afternoon all cash had to be swept up into new time deposits. These were often overnight or just 2-3 day investments. The process was based off of the weekly cash forecast which was stored on the Kerr-McGee mainframe and accessed by everyone via Citrix. The weekly forecast started on Monday at the operating units. The operators would have to forecast DOWN TO THE PENNY every single expenditure or receipt they knew about. At the end of the day Monday the information would go to one higher level up, where it would be compiled. It would then move on to one level higher up on Wednesday to a treasury analyst for that unit. On Thursday morning I had all of the information for every unit and would complete the overall spreadsheet which presumably someone reviewed on Friday. It was a pain-staking process that took the time of at least 10 people over the course of the week to do. And to what end Of course a Treasury department needs to be able to forecast cash, but down to the penny There were times where somewhere along the way the info would be recalled because someone let out an anticipated 500 expenditure. What difference did it make if 500 was invested one day or two days Ideally if you have the exact cash balance down to the penny you can invest better. For example, if you have 1 million dollars extra and you know you can invest it for and extra 4-5 days instead of just overnight you will earn more interest. But how much Enough to have 10 people working on the thing Enough to harass operating units into worrying about that instead of worrying about their operations Of course not. I once said something to my boss about it and his response was quotyou are lucky, when I first started here they were doing this by carbon paper and fedexed around. We only changed to spreadsheet because they couldn39t buy the carbon paper anymorequot. I was in a good position to learn many other things about the corporate culture. As the young American guy there by myself the chemicals sales force guys would take me out at night on their expense accounts when they passed through town and they expressed how hampered they were by the corporate culture. Also, at the time, Kerr-McGee was spending literally millions of dollars per year on outside consultants whose job it was to change the corporate culture. One of these consultants spent a week or so in Zurich and I went out to eat and have a few drinks with him a few times. I39ll spare you the details of the horror stories but his conclusion was pretty straight-forward: quotIt39s utterly hopeless. quot I don39t want to name names but I remarked to him once that a certain person in our division seemed to be the real brains of the operation, yet he was not the head of it and I was wondering why. The answer: quotBecause X joined the company two weeks later than Y 20 years agoquot. So let39s review what I learned about Kerr-Mcgee: A. A massive number of employees doing useless jobs. B. A culture where seniority is all that matters. C. The corporate tail wagging the operating dog. After Kerr-McGee it was on to Devon in Jeff Agosta39s unit. I ran the quotcash managementquot function which included the investment of excess assets as my primary job but I also performed as somewhat of an overflow worker for other corporate finance projects as needed. What was the corporate culture at Devon Well, it depends on what part of it you worked in. In accounting it was just as bad as as Kerr-McGee. There were massive, bloated staffs of people who did their job the way they did it and simply wanted it to stay that way and didn39t want anything to change. That didn39t really matter too much except that corporate expenses were higher than they should be and landowners would be pissed off because they got their checks late. More than a few times in social settings when telling someone I worked at Devon the response would be quotwhy can39t you send your checks on timequot Corporate finance, however was a lean and mean operating machine. We had less people performing the finance and treasury functions than Kerr-McGee had working on the weekly cash forecast - and we did a good job of it too. This was all under Jeff39s leadership and direction. How did the cash forecast work When I started there was already a cash forecast spreadsheet which I later revamped. Here is how it worked: We pulled production estimates from an existing database. We pulled gas and oil prices from Bloomberg and applied a discount to them for what Devon would actually receive for oil and gas sales. We knew corporate overhead data and when payroll was due, and we knew interest and swap payments already. As to the level of accuracy achieved it was pretty straightforward. The conversation went something lie this: Me: quotJeff, given interest rates and what we can do with extra cash in terms of investments (or lack thereof) and the manpower that we will have to expend in order to get a more detailed forecast it is cheaper to just leave an extra 100 million laying around than expend the effort to harass people so that we can do more detailed forecasts like Kerr-McGee does. Plus, we don39t have to harass people who have other things they are working on. quot And that was that. A rational and efficient decision was made, without regard to quothow things are always donequot and taking into account that there is no need to be harassing operating units. Not harassing the operating units was a theme that Jeff reinforced a few times. I recall one event when a decision was made by an operating unit to bid on some blocks off of Brazil. The email I got was basically quotWe have to have 40 million dollars in an account in Brazil in three daysquot. The 40 million wasn39t a problem - remember we always had more than that just laying around. The problem was opening the account. This is was after 911 and the government was imposing all sorts of new Know Your Customer rules on the banks. To open the account Bank of America wanted endless documentation that there was basically know way I could do within 3 days. In the end I just said to our representative at B of A quotlook, this is Devon energy opening an account for a Devon subsidiary, we have 120 accounts with you. This account need to be opening tomorrow. I will send you whatever documentation you want later, but this account has to be open tomorrow. If you don39t know your customer well enough to open the account then we will have to find someone who doesquot. He opened the account. At some point during or after this event I said to Jeff quotHey, these guys (the operating unit) really have to give us more heads up next timequot. Jeff39s response was quotIt is fine for you to send them an email asking them to give you a better heads up when they can, but always remember they are the one39s who make the money. We work for them, not the other way aroundquot. Meanwhile let39s get back to Chesapeake. Aubrey McClendon the well liked and flamboyant founder had his own management approach. I can39t speak too much to the internal culture as I was not a part of it, but Aubrey was generally highly regarded by his employees. The problem was as follows: He ran the company like it was his own as opposed to running it on behalf of the shareholders. Although it is difficult to quantify this was apparent by the massive amount of money that Chesapeake through around the community in what appeared to me to be one big dose of self-promotion. Chesapeake funding was all over Oklahoma City, and the news articles praising McClendon were legion as he achieved celebrity status. Companies need to distribute money in their communities from time to time for their long run success, but Chesapeake39s giving far outstripped anything Devon or Kerr-McGee was doing. I was constantly thinking to myself quotI wonder how any of this benefits shareholdersquot Later events that are quantifiable proved me correct that indeed the company was being run in his own interested instead of the interest of the shareholders. In short, McClendon has a sweetheart deal where, after shareholders paid to acquire land McClendon got an ownership stake of 2.5 of every well drilled. He had to pay 2.5 of the drilling costs. How did he come up with the 2.5 He borrowed against his interest in the wells. Here is the problem with that: 1. McClendon was competing with Chesapeake for access to capital. 2. Let39s say the price of natural gas goes down and Chesapeake needed to curtail it39s drilling or shut-in some wells. What decision should be made Well, if McClendon has massive personal interest payments to make on his personal debt, he suddenly has a conflict of interest with the company. McClendon of course denied any conflict of interest, but it is ludicrous to believe that shareholders ever would have approved such a situation had they known about it. One defense perhaps is that the board of directors (who represent the shareholders) knew, but this is the same board of directors that bailed McClendon out of his personal financial problems buy buying his private map collection from him and awarding him a massive bonus while Chesapeake39s own fortunes were in decline. In addition McClendon was using CHK employees to do personal work for him and also never disclosed that he had a hedge fund on the side which traded in the same energy markets that CHK did. In short, he ran the company on behalf of himself, instead of on behalf of the shareholders. To contrast this behavior to what I saw at Devon: One time a senior manager operating out of Houston donated 10,000 to a charity without prior approval. As Jeff relayed to me the manager was told quotthat is the shareholders money, either get it back or pay it back yourselfquot. All of this leads to an interesting situation: Aubrey McClendon is the last person in the world I would want to look after my interests as a shareholder. Jeff Agosta is the first. Now, Jeff works for Aubrey. In January 2014 Jeff was fired as the CFO at Devon. I don39t know the scoop and have not spoken to Jeff in 6 years, but as someone with more knowledge than I do tells me: quotHe fd up on a forecastreporting issue, plus he alienated virtually everyone who worked under him with his management style, it seems. quot I have no idea myself, but that he might have alienated people under him would not be a surprise. I for one liked working in his unit. With Jeff would always knew where you stood. If you did a good job you knew it, and if you did a bad job you knew it. Not everyone is like me however. Some people care more about the 5 minutes of pleasantries that need to occur when a conversation starts and need criticism of their idea in a roundabout manner. Jeff was not that guy. More importantly, I would bet that Jeff attempted to impose his efficiency viewpoint on the rest of the company and got a lot of pushback. American Energy Partners is said to be getting ready for an IPO. My advice: figure out who is really calling the shots on the finances. If it is McClendon then take a pass. If it is Agosta then go for it if you otherwise like the company and it39s valuation. So what does all this have to do with Petrobras In the end and after years and years of attempted reform Kerr-McGee called it quits. The stock had basically gone nowhere for 20 years and eventually the chemicals unit was spun off and the Oil amp Gas assets sold to Anadarko. The archaic corporate culture just couldn39t be overcome. In all companies the allocation of capital is incredibly important. The difference between Energy companies and many other companies is that the economic consequences few key decisions will be apparent in short order. Proctor and Gamble can make bad decisions and the result will just be a slow decline in overall market share over a long period of time - this is not the case with an energy company. Petrobras can have all of the reserves in the world, but if management and the corporate culture are no good shareholders will never realize a profit from it. On December 20, 2011, at 9:38am, Jeffrey Buckalew, a successful investment banker and pilot, departed Teterboro, NJ bound for Atlanta in his Socata TBM 700 turboprop along with his wife, their two children, a business associate and the family dog. By 10:05, they were all dead. The NTSB declared the probable cause(s) of the accident to be: The airplane39s encounter with unforecasted severe icing conditions that were characterized by high ice accretion rates and the pilot39s failure to use his command authority to depart the icing conditions in an expeditious manner, which resulted in a loss of airplane control. Happily, I wasn39t working that morning, but I worked that sector for 25 years and the controller who was working the aircraft when it went down is a friend of mine. The accident highlights a couple of issues that are highly relevant to trading. First, the threat of complacency which can lead to a failure to recognize that a dangerous situation is developing, and second, the need to take action to correct the situation immediately. We must be vigilant and nimble. This excellent video by AOPA39s Air Safety Institute gives a thorough discussion of the accident and its causes. I was particularly keen on the last two minutes or so (transcribed below ) and it39s insights. In the first paragraph, replace the word aircraft with quotsystemsquot and aviation and flying with quottradingquot and you can see what I mean. Sometimes experience harms more than it helps. Rather than making us more vigilant, it can lead to a sort of comfortable complacency, not only about the dangers we face, but about our own capabilities and those of our aircraft. Complacency is arguably aviation39s most common vice, and one of the hard truths about flying is that it39s sometimes punished with extraordinary severity. The pilot of N731CA was in the clouds for a total of approximately five minutes. Roughly two minutes passed between his first indication to ATC that icing was a problem and the beginning of the final plunge. It takes time for the human mind to spin up when suddenly confronted with a problem. It takes time to recognize that things have changed and process the idea that an extraordinary response is called for. All during that time, part of the mind is fighting against the new reality, arguing quotstay the coursequot. Two minutes isn39t much time, but it39s enough time. Enough time to make a decision, declare an emergency and reverse the climb. Or, just push the nose over and worry about ATC later. Or at least, that39s what we39d like to think. The truth of the matter, which is that two minutes really isn39t much time for someone who is surprised, conflicted and almost certainly frightened, is decidedly less comforting. Anatoly Veltman writes: Yes, there is an adage that biggest losses come immediately following biggest gains. It39s also possible that big gains may follow big gains. My explanation is that what brought the initial big gains was the increase in volatility. Gary Rogan writes: So if either big losses or big gains follow big gains what is one supposed to do after big gains Stefan Martinek adds: Theoretically, we should de-leverage and adjust for volatility (I assume our initial position was volatility normalized). Practically, doing nothing and ignore some vol. spike usually does not hurt as much as believed especially for long vol. Strategien. Exitadjustment is therefore different if strategy does well in storms or if it is killed by storms. Some trading storms are good. The notion that the United States has had a two-party system over the last hundred years is largely a fantasy. This may be another successful schoolteacher fairy tale designed to discourage quotconservativesquot from having any patience with the minority party it may be simply part of the American notion that the two teams on on the field have an equal chance that is to be determined by quothow much they want itquot. Either way, the fantasy of equal competition does not fit the facts. The Republicans have only won the trophy once in the last hundred years - in 1928. That was the only time where the Republicans continued to control both houses of Congress as a member of their party was re-elected President. The results were these: Republican House margin of majority: 12, Republican Senate margin of majority (including Vice-President39s vote in the event of a tie): 10. The Democrats, on the other hand, have 4 Super Bowl rings: 1936, 1940, 1944, and 1964. Their first - Roosevelt39s 2nd election - was the biggest blowout: Democratic House margin of majority: 30, Democratic Senate margin of majority (including Vice-President39s vote in the event of a tie): 34. Even in the era of divided government and less than landslide elections, the drift has remained in favor of the Democratic party. 2008 election results - Democratic House margin of majority: 19, Democratic Senate margin of majority (including Vice-President39s vote in the event of a tie): 21 2014 election results - Republican House margin of majority: 17, Republican Senate margin of majority (deducting Vice-President39s vote in the event of a tie): 3 What interests me is the likelihood that the United States may finally have a genuine two-party system. If it does happen, it will be because the Republicans finally become what Grant planned for them to be 140 years ago - the party of the new Constitution that included the 14th Amendment. is may actually change. The Democrats have been the party of Federal executive authority since their founding whenever possible, they have looked to the White House to order the entire country to do what they wanted - i. e. buy Louisiana, chase slaves, regulate the sale of sick chickens, etc. During my lifetime, the notion that that the States who make up the Union have equal sovereignty suffered the same fate as Grant39s reputation as President. It ceased being taught in any law or other type of school, and the presumption of absolute Federal authority became universal. Now, to my delight and surprise, the idea equal sovereignties and rights of citizenship for the States and the Union has revived. People, even judges, have read the 10th Amendment and understand the meaning of its plain language. Wir werden sehen. I recently connected a turntable to my professional sound system with equalizers, subwoofers, and running two 1700 watt power amps. I have a collection of several hundred vintage vinyl records from the 60s on. I was amazed anew at how full and involving the analog sound is. You can hear the wood tones in the guitar of George Benson. It makes you feel like lying down and just listening to the music, or dancing. That just doesn39t happen with CD39s or digital content. The digital sound algorithms leave out some of the feeling and nuance of the sound. Boosting the bass does nothing but cover the lack of content in the other registers. Also, they vinyl has lasted for 50 years with excellent quality. The art on the covers is fascinating. Meanwhile, my cd39s have dissolved, the cases broken, and been transferred to hard drive and lacks the same fidelity. High drama in the SampP. Like a Dumas or L39Amour n novel. (who else writes adventure like this) monday change -30 tues change -26 wed change 35 thur change 36 fri change -20 prev week change -40 Perhaps this explains the movement up in Vix. It39s like a boxing match in the final round, or a tennis rally in doubles with all 4 players at net blasting at each other. What other sport situation A very interesting article reminding us that we can estimate the standard deviation of most of our data as the range4 or (b-a)4 where b is the highest and a is the lowest obse ration. This leads to many interesting augmentations. You can quickly calculate the significance of a result by 4u x n to 12 (range). I was led to this result by a very interesting 1980 Box on evolutionary manufacturing operations. I was amazed that the authors were so clear and precise about the statistics, but then I saw that the author was Box and Draper, considered two of the world39s leading statisticians. 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That39s how long it took to write Advanced Racquetball . the sequel to my best selling Complete Book of Racquetball that promised, forty years ago, this sequel. It39s 825 pages and covers every aspect of the game from sneaker to frontal lobes for Open to Pro players. It was a labor of love for 1000 hours in an Amazon sweat box cyber for 11 hours a day, seven days a week for the last three months, on top of a previous thousand or so hours writing earlier sections. There are over 400 photos including sequential strokes and serves. Personal interviews with 90 of the 30 most recent world champions. A full appendectomy. I decided to scuttle the title, and shrug like Atlas, due to the incompetence of the undeserving racquetball community. They are also a verbal rather than print page readers. My goal was accomplished in writing the book and listing it at Amazon. One other set of Miami eyes who has read the single copy in existence said, 39It39s very good, but too long for the racquetball mentality.39 I39ll give the single copy, like Diogenes, to the first deserving player I meet. I withhold it from the public and if you want to know why read Atlas Shrugged. We can soon expect to hear the mumbo about how if January is down the market is likely to be down for the year et al. How many times does this have to fail before it loses its impact. Rocky Humbert writes: Feel free to call this quotmumboquot 8212 but there are hundreds of millions, if not billions, of US stock market positions that will exit if the market closes today below the 1960-2000 level. I am not predicting today39s close and the probability of falling 40 spu points is always very low (hence betting on this outcome has lousy odds). However, I will predict with confidence that should these quotstopsquot get triggered, you will be rubbing your eyes next week at the much lower prices you will see. Hernan Avella writes: What happened with the idea you championed back in December about the wisdom of the common man, that poured 36.5 billion into stock funds on Xmas week, marking the biggest inflows on record as U. S. stocks surged to record highs. Are those the positions that are looking to sell today Enlighten us please. Rocky Humbert writes: The quotcommon manquot will do just fine. It39s the professionals who will be selling based on things such as this . Anton Johnson writes: Wondering about the self-promoting Mebane Faber and his recently launched ETF buisness, I found this value nugget: Cambria global value ETF (GVAL) return since inception (3-12-2014 till 1-28-2015) is 39The Cambria Global Value ETF seeks investment results that closely correspond to the price and yield performance, before fees and expenses, of the Cambria Global Value Index8230The Index next separates the top 25 of these countries as measured by Cambria39s proprietary long term valuation metrics. The Index then screens stocks with market capitalizations over 200 million. The Index is comprised of approximately 100 companies.39 anonymous writes: Meb Faber likes to look at 12 month moving averages computed at the end of the month. For SampP we have: Weekly, at Blythe, CA High School through the 2000s, a frantic version of this blast over the school intercom for all to hear summoning me to put out another fire in the Severely Emotionally Disturbed classroom at the back of the campus between the 4-H pens of pigs, goats and cows and the broad irrigation canal. Once there, in the spartan SED room, the small group of eight edgy youngsters told how they had browbeat or attacked the sub fleeing the doorway at that second. I would answer, 39Everyone in Sand Valley where I live, and everyone throughout my travels, flies off the handle once in a while. The trick is to identify the cause and correct it. It39s the same process as fixing a racquet stroke, where I was a champion.39 Fortunately, as in racquetball where I flung my cover onto the court and was ahead 3-0 before the first serve, my reputation preceded me into this classroom. Sometimes I think the students rioted to summon me, as prison inmates stage food fights to break routine. The kids brightened to reveal the bizarre reasons for their misbehavior that had caused their banishment to this awkward class. First, I told them, 39We aren39t going to use the term SED around here. Labels create identities. You guys are as normal as me and my neighbors in Sand Valley. Next, the goal is to mainstream you back into the normal classes. Third, if you39re in here at your parent39s order to create a portfolio of being whacky in order to get on welfare for the rest of your lives, think again. There39s a long line of students wishing to replace you in this class. Fourth, my methods are unorthodox but effective. I39m not a schooled psychologist, but if you do your work, I39ll reward each daily lesson with a related story from the road.39 Their excuses were miserably true. Some were rising with the roosters at 5 am without breakfast to ride a bus for an hour from an outlying farm to the school, and arrived irritated. Or, their parents drank and hit them the night before. A couple were worried about being accosted after school, and showed secreted 10quot drill bits slid into their book spines. One albino had unrecognized photophobia. Another was dyslexic. Another painted his fingernails purple and talked with a lisp for attention. These were the campus hard luck cases lumped into one classroom, their last chance before expulsion, and I was their last hope. When you have someone over a barrel like this, life is actually pretty easy. I dimmed the harsh fluorescent lights, and we did jumping jacks, sit-ups and pushups for twenty minutes. Then I turned down the thermostat to cool the room, a la public airplanes to calm the passengers. I opened the day39s assignment from the permanent SED teacher, the gorgeous lady I39ll call Ms. Libda, who often was away at business meetings, and so her duty fell on me. She was talented, caring, a former Navy medic, cop, and prison turnkey. After their work was done, and the adventure story reward, I wrote up a detailed report on what had taken place and the progress of each student in mirror writing. Mirror writing reads from right to left, and early on in my subbing career the principal had called me into his office to explain why many of the students, especially the athletes, were seen reading their texts upside down. He had a boxing picture of himself on the wall from his youth, and I threw a mock left hook at his jaw, while justifying that if he had read print flowing right-to-left then his eyes would be quicker to have caught the jab, as well as the next butterfly, car or ball. My after class reports to the Ms. Libda were a hit, and one day she addressed me, 39The students like you, and so do I. I see you as a male version of myself.39 We commenced dating and she, in a mothering way, often slept in late after calling the school for a sub, so I could get a call on the same phone to report for work. The goals were met with success, the students stopped clawing wallpaper off the walls, were cordial to the visiting sheriff, no more suicide attempts, and the primary object to mainstream the students back into their ordinary classrooms. The most valuable lesson I imparted to my xenophobic students was on Small Town, America. 39That39s normal as she goes in Small Town, America39. Their explanation for everything is, 39We been here a hundred years, and we been doing things this way a hundred years.39 Hence the state motto, 39Be part of a group, take and give orders, obey.39 The solution, students, is to proceed with patience through your youth, and then strike out to new horizons. You can always take the beaten path back to Blythe. Ms. Libda finally took a job elsewhere, and I was hired by Riverside County to replace her full time. There was a huge boost in salary to 40,000 with full medical. I began anonymously donating 15 of my salary back to student lunches, good books, pupil doctor bills, and chessboards for the library. I had a great idea from One Flew Over the Cuckoo39s Nest in which the patient McMurray masquerading as a psychiatrist takes the other patients on outings from the hospital. Securing permission from the principal, who was now my pal from the boxing lesson, I took the SED classes on educational outings to the city library, prison, bowling alley, and for nature walks along the irrigation ditch that blocked their graduation into the real world. In the coming months, my classroom door was revolving like a barroom on a Saturday night with new students arriving as soon as the former were mainstreamed. Soon the backlist ran out, and the class dwindled to three students. One day, after being the full-time SED teacher for about six months, I was called during class by the Riverside school administration. The director politely informed, 39I see you have mainstreamed nearly all of your students back into their regular classrooms. Congratulations. We are letting you go.39 I laughed, cleaning the desk. I had worked myself out of a job The lesson is don39t be a square peg in a round hole without expecting consequence. Heed your inner calling, but be prepared to move on. I hit the trail to world adventure to have more stories to tell to a succeeding class. 1. Average returns on equities are, to pick a number at random, 7. But if business was untaxed that might become 10 and if sales taxes disappeared and fell to the bottom line, that might become 14. Over fifty years, the difference reinvested would be over 20x more capital and we could all take things easy. 2. The British government likes to take quotpayments on accountquot from its non-PAYE taxpayers, thus taking prepayments on tax due before the year end. With a 2 cost of capital and vast working capital resources, this seems somewhat ungracious behaviour. Unless perhaps it has been noted by the government that most small businesses fail under a vast burden of taxes, domestic and European regulations, import and export duties, etc. and like a retail forex broker who well knows all his Ma amp Pa clients will eventually liquidate under monstrous vig, in all cases novates client collateral as early as possible. 3. It has been noted that a handful of rich people control as much wealth as billions of poor do. But most of the world39s poorest people have no savings at all, and thus if you summate a partial set with its values chosen to be very close to zero and compare it to another set who39s numbers are not, you will obviously see a large inequality. You could just as validly say that a regular US citizen with 1,000 of savings has a thousand times as much wealth as someone in the Congo who is down to his last dollar, and present this too as being fetid and greedy. 4. quotThe 139squot per capita wealth is calculated as a capitalised mean sum, with the average net worth of quotthe 1quot in the US being around 15-20m. But every hundredth person you meet does not have a balance sheet close to that, as the mean and median are very different. Thus the media creates a perception of quotthe 139squot situation that is totally unrelated to reality. 5. It is a great shame that there are so many poor in the world. But what have the free markets wrought in this respect By the power law of the distribution of wealth, just Bill Gates39 and Warren Buffett39s wealth alone must represent a significant percentage of quotthe 1squot stash. It so happens that these two individuals have donated, or earmarked for the future, close to 100 of their accrued savings to philanthropic causes. Bill Gates is one of the most accomplished businessmen on the planet and he has thrown his labour, intellect and organisational skills in for free. In contrast, had they been taxed to the utmost on the way, might it be reasonable to expect that their funds would have dissipated across a variety of government departments of dubious efficiency 7. Indeed, if quotthe 1quot control around 20tr of the USA39s 60tr of wealth, and Buffett and Gates are packing 150bn between them, that39s already 0.75 of the dough being hotly debated that is in fact earmarked for charitable purposes. 8. If one continued this calculation all the way down the wealth tree, excluding capital that39s either pledged for philanthropic purposes or being reinvested in fixed capital in order to create better living standards for the population (something consistently hidden in the hedonic adaptation of inflation statistics), what percentage of their wealth do the megarich actually consume 9. Are the megarich not in fact spending most of their lives competing for their table ranking on the Forbes website, each download of which is worth about 0.001 cents Should we not be grateful for this self-deception on their and their no-doubt heavily plastic-surgeried wives and girlfriends behalves 10. These notes may or may not have been sponsored by the Koch Brothers. Gary Rogan writes: There seem to be at least two aspects to the quotgrowing wealth disparityquot: (a) To what degree the quotelitequot controls new wealth creation through illicitillegalimmoral means (b) To what degree the highly intelligenteducatedthose of quotproperquot disposition are able to earn more than the rest simply because they are better suited to thrive in today39s economy. Usually, the vast majority of those who talk about this subject of the quotgrowing inequalityquot have an agenda to capitalize on wealth redistribution rhetoric and want to attribute wealth inequality to the simple existence of capitalism, and have no intention to solve quotthe problemquot nor even care about it otherwise. Well, everything is going to hell. Russia is still a problem, Greece seems to be turning into a trojan horse, the European QE, if confirmed by the data, will be fuel to the fire otherwise wasted money. The real QE for Europe would be fiscal union, it is not clear which masochism perverse wants to continue to kick the can despite all that is happening. They are destroying, structurally and industrially, European nations. I think the Euro should yield against the next 23 months if will follow positive data, so I expect what happened from 15gen (hammer on European indices). Otherwise the will continue to parity, EUR 0.800.75 worst case. I think that pears are ripe in the US, so maybe sell the tops and put into treasury waiting for the second part of the year when better occasions are a possibility. Oil will rise in second part of 2015 (if not before). I think Macro decision are faster than fact, but there is nothing worse than to inject money in an economy unable to recover because it was managed by opportunistic nations (politicianbureaucrats) not willing to cooperate. Structurally, the QE will not have any improvement. It makes no sense to do austerity while the EU industrial system collapses and then six years later, they realized the error, try to revive the fortunes of the economy printing. The system to indebt nations and then manage them better, so loved by the IMF, seems to have become ingrained in Europe. My grandmother used to say, it was better when it was worse, and we were unaware of that, but she was right. width402 height268 I recently stumbled across the work of Peter Turchin, an evolutionary biologist, who is attempting to applying quantifiable scientific techniques to the study of history as part of a field known as cliodynamics. From the Santa Fe Institute39s blurb on it: The past does not repeat itself, but it rhymes, quot Mark Twain once said, a reference to the patterns of history, perceived anecdotally. Today, a new field is coalescing around the notion that historical patterns are, to some degree, measurable, and that the future can, also to some degree, be predicted. Researchers involved in the field call it quotcliodynamicsquot after Clio, the Greek muse of history. Scholars of human history traditionally have studied the past as a chain of idiosyncratic events, with each event a unique response to unique circumstances, says SFI External Professor David Krakauer. Historical fields such as paleontology have relied on collections of evidencemdashfossils, for examplemdashto draw inferences about the past. A few fields have made strides in approaching history as a science. In archaeology, for example, rigorous field survey methods have provided new, quantifiable information about the location, distribution, frequency, and organization of certain human activities. In population genetics, evolutionary outcomes are modeled as probabilities. Cliodynamicists would like to see the historical fields sharing methods among themselves and adopting approaches and theories from physics and other long-quantified fields. The tools of complexity science are now beginning to make the task tractable, Krakauer says. Mathematical and computational techniques such as agent-based models, power-law relations, and more classical differential-equation models are in several fields helping scientists develop new theoretical frameworks, for example. Although he did not perhaps agree with how reductionistic cliodynamics seems at first glance, I can39t help but see echoes of Giovanni Battista Vico39s New Science in this effort. I have to give credit for the sheer audacity of this pipedream. Turchin has published a book called Secular Cycles related to this topic and also maintains a website. I started to wade through his paper on analyzing the quotDynamics of political instability in the United States, 1780ndash2010quot also. It39s not without flaws, but is worth a look . The whole field may end up doomed to failure and hopefully won39t become another dismal science, but I thought it was worth a look, and was wondering if any other specs are familiar with it. If nothing else, it might cross pollinate with some ideas for trading. anonymous writes: This sounds VERY much like the premise behind Isaac Asimov39s Foundation Series, the books that got me hooked on his work and Sci-Fi in general. From the above wiki: The premise of the series is that the mathematician Hari Seldon spent his life developing a branch of mathematics known as psychohistory, a concept of mathematical sociology. Using the laws of mass action, it can predict the future, but only on a large scale. The CME and the CFTC are doing a great job at destroying the market ecology by exterminating the 39spoofers39 out of the futures markets. This clever species helps maintain the equilibrium of order flow by gaming liquidity asymmetries and thus keeping the population of naive momentum front-running strategies in check. It reminds me of the extinction and later reintroduction of the wolves in Yellowstone . Ed Stewart writes: I can39t see how spoofers are bad for anyone but the momentum front runners, as you suggest. There must be a quotgod givenquot right to jump in front of slower moving participants that we are not aware of. I39d love to know how the spoofing practice developed. My guess is it started as a counter-strategy to neutralize front-running before it became a source of profit Vinh Tu writes: And quottheyquot destroyed limit orders when they busted the trades during the flash crash. I guess front-running is the only virtuous and god-favoured strategy Hernan Avella writes: Vinh, I think the case with the limit orders is simply adaptation forced by the hft boys techniques. They have raised everybody39s game. What do ppl gain by advertising their intention in the order book. What it39s remarkable, is how long it took for other participants to start randomizing, splitting and using hidden orders in a more widespread fashion. But to your point, yes, speed is expensive and 39they39 try to recover those costs. anonymous writes: Famous energy trader John Arnold says : quotFront-running is profitable against traditional orders entered by humans. But with spoofers in the mix, the picture looks quite different: When the front-running HFT algorithm jumps ahead of a spoof order, the front-runner gets fooled and loses money. The HFT39s front-running algorithm can39t easily distinguish between legitimate orders and spoofs. Suddenly the front-runner faces real market risk and makes the rational choice to do less front-running. In short, spoofing poses the risk of making front-running unprofitable. Because spoofing is only profitable if front-running exists, allowing both would ensure that neither is widespread. quot The basic ideas are very similar to Hernan39s market ecology post. The one thing that the ministers told Carlos was that the Saudi Ambassador must not be harmed as the country was the Lynchpin of everything. The visit by Obama and the avoidance of the French by the US provides evidence 25 years later of the wisdom of Carlos. It39s during bizzards moreso than other storms that people suffer severe injuries. Orthopedic surgeons are usually quite busy after historic storms. Whether this one will meet the forecast remains to be seen. When I was on call at Shock-Trauma during the 1983 blizzard, we a sustained of blizzard conditionmdashwhiteout and wind. Some fellow in Frederick County (I was in Baltimore City) decided it would be a great time to take his snowmobile out for a romp through the storm. He missed seeing the tree that his snowmobile took on and lostmdashand he suffered multiple system injuriesmdashlacerated liver (it was half off the vena cava, and the surgeons were amazed he survived the helicopter trip), broken pelvis, broken femur, collapsed lung, brain hemorrhage, skull fracture, broken cheek and eye socket, 4 or 5 broken ribs, a broken knee cap, a broken wrist, a bunch of broken toes. and bilateral dislocated shoulders, not to mention extensive bruising. he received something like 25 or 30 units of blood. It was pretty bad. He walked out of the hospital 6 weeks later. Blizzards are dangerous. They39re not just big storms. AMERICAN SNIPER and THE HURT LOCKER aside, it39s relatively rare for a film today to exude l39air de macho accomplished. John Wayne bought the farm a while back. Van Damme and company are on hiatus. Liam is being re-TAKEN and re-re-TAKEN. But BLACK SEA comes close to being a tough-minded, suspense-driven masculine welcome basket to movie goers hungry for actors, not CG effects. For tough-minded scripting, withut PC rubbish leavening the text for the delicate micro-aggression-oriented. quotBlack Seaquot is that movie. Directed by Kevin Macdonald, the story starts in the dismissal of Robinson, a vet submarine captain, played by a terrific, corpus-hardened Jude Law, who walks with the bowlegs and slight caveman predisposition of a long-time swabbie. Sailors on land look always slightly untrusting of the ground beneath them, and manifest a wide stance in case the terra become not-so-firma under them. He39s being excessed by a maritime salvage company that is dry-eyed about its seamen, and not given to watches and lifted-pinky farewell parties. Some 70 years ago, a German U-boat laden with 40 million or so in gold was lost somewhere in the Black Sea. Recovering it is a scheme Law and his close mates come up with to generate money after they39ve been cashiered without much of a envelope. Don39t let the door hit you on the way out. Outfitting the old sub they are given by a go-between, Daniels (Scoot McNairy) to accomplish the recovery of the gold bars means hiring a roughneck crew: half Russians, half Brits. Much of the dialogue is in untranslated Russian, but when there are subtitles from the swarthy, often taciturn Russkies, they are mouthing wisecracking or typically no-bull grit the audience laughs with, though the British naveys have no idea about. The movie might well gain if they were to subtitle the British dialogues, since they are fast, guttural and often below the obvious comprehensible threshold. The opening credits feature a montage of Stalin, WWII at sea with Germans and Russians in grainy perspective, and on land, with a wash of blood drenching the screens top to bottom. These BW and aged-brown photos and footage set the scene for the coming hours of risky scrimmage against Russian fleets, inter-ethnic and internecine pile-ons, ever-present perils of being leagues deep in a Sargasso of oceanic dangers and unpredictable fails. And a stunning betrayal even the savviest could not swallow. RobinsonLaw runs the Russian diesel sub, grizzled and believable. There is a young guy, 18, Tobin (Bobby Schofield) who39s a last-minute hire, aboard for lack of one of the experienced submariners, and he both grows with the part, learning the baffling wheels and pressure gauges mostly from the Russian orders, grunts and directional hand-languagemdashas well as from the fatherly interest taken by Law in him. It is a humanizing affection thatndasheach time it is exhibited in the midst of crises of increasing severitymdashmakes you aware of the subtlety of Law39s workmdashoften, such men have scant room for affectionate care of anyone, let alone newbies they are stuck with in battle conditions. The Russians, superstitious and tough, call the young man dragooned into being their 12th, derisively, The Virgin. Men of the sea don39t think it propitious to travel with a virgin. (In our experience amain, sailors and such high-risk adventurers do not take kindly to women traveling with them in any capacity, eithermdasheven disguised as so-so effeminate men, with breasts squooshed.) We see Robinson39s gauzy flashbacks to his once-happy family, gone consequent to his career choice. In such circumstances, there is usually a split unequal in the divisions of the eventual haul, should they manage to find the sunken sub and extract the gold. But Law39s skipper knows the men are all working equally hard, all under equal risk, and he rules the gold is to be divided equally among all the men, leading to no small squalls of rage, envy, grumbling and dissatisfaction. The cinematography is fine, managing to convey the claustrophobic and ancientness of the craft, but capturing the man to man to man interactions in life and death encounters. Viewers are gripped with each hair-trigger decision and crisis. The story, taut as it is, is something of a relief, coming at a time of Angelina Jolie39s harrowing but true UNBROKEN, Hawking39s crippled presence in THE THEORY OF EVERYTHING, and Turing cerebral, aristocratic IMITATION GAME. It39s about the recovery of millions of dollars39 worth of undiscovered gold, not existential catastrophe and civilizational doom. It39s a man39s movie, a relieving movie, like a trou Normandmdashit clears the too-brutal menu of realia from the average filmgoer39s palate. It is a tense, manly engagement, revealing how men on their uppers handle cooperation, fear, competition for top dog, and 8230 prime in such cases, greed. However, certain dogs in certain countries, depending on the people that influence them, in one month turn from angels to snarling demons. I learned a lot in the past seven months fighting about eight dog packs of 5-10 animals each by being surrounded by them all snapping within four feet ndash front, back, and either side. The best thing to do is to back into a corner. Otherwise the fastest alpha will sprint around and try to hamstring you by biting in the rear. It39s impossible to watch 360 degrees, so if one is encircled without any plan or mental rehearsal, blood is sure to flow. Deine. It39s exactly the same technique I watched on a National Geographic film of packs of 6-10 wolves each taking down caribou, deer, elk or even bison in Alaska. Unless the prey can outrun the predators (not me any more), or back into a corner so there is no real side or rear attack, or grab a weapon, then one is at the mercy of the canines. This never happened to me, though I was bitten biweekly by the Peru Amazon street dogs in various haunts where I walk. The two primary fighting techniques were to pick out the alpha (usually the biggest male), and charge it ignoring the attempted nips from the rest. Once you kick the alpha in the teeth and he whines, the rest retreat. In the common case of the fastest dog running around end to get behind you, I always turn and immediately chase it trying to kick it. You need to get to it fast because as you turn to face it the rest of the pack rushes your heels. That dog is the fastest, usually the bravest, and once it zips off the rest will follow its lead away from your body. Once I got these strategies down, I actually looked forward to the afternoon or night workouts of fighting off the packs after a long stint at the 39office39, and it was restful before going to bed. Sad to say for a veterinarian, I resorted to psychological warfare to turn the tide to keep from going psychologically rabid myself. I knew the dog alpha of each of the eight packs in a blink at a block39s distance it was usually the biggest male, but nearly as often the stupidest which is to say most fearless, like pit bulls and bulldogs. My psych warfare was to stalk them during their sleep, especially during a night rainstorm, and kick them directly in the cranium. If you kick in the eye, ear, nose or teeth it can cause permanent damage, but I only wanted to establish myself as their dominant. My foot made hard contact about twenty times over the months with the various sleeping alphas, as hard as football punts, but their heads are so hard that it was like kicking a 8quot diameter rock. I alternated feet over the weeks waiting for the soreness to go away. I have no toenails left on either of my big toes from this. Then the psychological part comes into play ndash a hard head kicked sleeping dog awakes instantly and instinctively turns and bites at the foot. There39s a split second to kick a second time with the same, or better, the opposite foot, and about one second after your first kick the animal registers pain, the eyes dull, and it withers off yelping in pain with a tucked tail. Now is the time to follow it through the rain for blocks, not letting it lie down, rest or sleep for about thirty minutes. It39s easier than you think because every alpha returns to the same spot after a few minutes, so I just lay in wait, as they have done with me, and keep them awake and moving. It39s a combination of pain and sleep deprivation, and after a few nights of this, without fail, the alpha will no longer lead the pack in attack. Instead, when it sees me coming, it lowers the head in a cowering gesture and sulks off, followed by the rest. That39s the time to be on the alert for attacks from street people, who live like them, and empathize in bands. I know this from hundreds of encounters with the same packs in the past few months in the Amazon where the dogs have turned nasty with a sudden rise in consciousness of the people who now treat the dogs like second, instead of equal, citizens. These are the techniques to beat fallen canine angels. And they worked on people too. Pitt T. Maner III suggests: These high frequency deterrents called zappers work fairly well and could be easily shipped to Peru. At least it would make an interesting study. Marion Dreyfus writes: When I rented a house on a hilltop at End of The World, Zimbabwe, baboons made increasingly aggressive encroachments toward me and the house. I remember saying to the park ranger, who came and shot the baboons dead: quotOnce they are no longer afraid of people, they will rip your face off. We must kill them to keep that from happening. quot Andy writes: A recent study on Montana and Wyoming data indicates that killing wolves leads to increased depredation of farm livestock. One theory proposed is that shooting the alpha breaks the discipline of the pack and leads to more independent wolf breeding pairs. These rogue lone attackers are more likely to predate livestock than an alpha led pack. The researchers did not find a drop in the depredation until gt25 of them were destroyed, which corresponds to their population39s rate of increase. The idea for a rancher is to avoid killing the alpha unless he can and will take out more than 25 of the population of the wolves. Tonight I went for my usual 5k walk. I plugged in my ear phones and hit my Pandora app and had to decide between my stations. I was in the mood for some rock, so I choose the appropriate station, turned the volume to the right level and set off my journey. About 34 of the way through my walk, I was heard a special treat. The studio demo version of the Lynyrd Skynyrd39s quotFree Birdquot. Now, I39m sure most, if not all, of you are familiar with that Free Bird. It is, IMHO, one of the 3 greatest rock songs of all time (the other two being Layla and Stairway to Heaven). But I had never heard the studio demo version before. What is unique about this particular song is how different, yet similar, it is to the album version or the live version (I prefer the live version8230.quotplay it pretty for Atlantaquot). Free Bird starts out as a ballad, but then, kicks into high gear with the famous 1970s style guitar jam. When the studio demo version kicks into high gear, it starts out with the screaming lead guitar for a few moments8230then the lead guitar stops, and all you hear for the next few minutes are the rhythm guitars. Anyone who knows Free Bird know that lead guitar jams long and hard for at least 5 minutes straight. It is an unmistakeable 5 minutes of classic rock guitar licks that anyone with even a passing appreciation of classic rock will know and recognize. But on the demo version, the quotjamquot portion is mainly rhythm guitars for almost the entire time. What was very interesting to me is that even though there were only rhythm guitars playing for most of the song, in my head, I could not help but hear the lead guitar8230even though they were not there. I tried very hard to concentrate on the rhythm guitars and appreciate what I was hearing. Heck, I sorta played in garage band in my teens and I played the rhythm portion of Free Bird many times quotback in the dayquot. But no matter how hard I tried, my mind forced me to hear the absent lead guitar. Listening to this demo version of Free Bird got me thinking about the markets and my investing strategies. How many things happen around me that I just assume are there8230.but really aren39t8230..whether in my life as a father or as an investment adviser When I vet money managers to place my clients money with, how much I am superimposing (is that the right word) what I think I should be hearingseeing over what is really going on When are there subtle (or not so subtle) changes that I miss because the meme playing in my head tricks me into hearingseeing what I expect to be there I39m going to refocus myself to see if I39m really hearing what I think I39m hearing8230.or whether there are some missing lead guitar illusions that are clouding my judgement. I pose this question to the group: How might one go about doing that In the meantime82308230..here39s the YouTube link to the demo version of the Free Bird. Try and listen to it without hearing the absent lead guitars(also, bonus points if you spot the difference in lyrics): And to give some context to those that don39t know the song, here39s the album version of the same song. And I39d be remiss if I didn39t include my favorite version of the song (play it pretty for Atlanta). And just because it39s so tasty, I39ll throw in a little semi-obscure Skynyrd hit: Curtis Lowe Leo Jia writes: Reality or illusion I like to study the topic, and learn how to tell the difference or whether there is a difference. One believes something to be real when the 5 senses send signals to the mind and the mind says thus it is real. That is what reality means to most people. What if one39s 5 senses were altered The mind then has no way to tell. Think about virtual reality. Though the current technology is not fully there to truly alter the 5 senses, it demonstrates how the mind determines reality. Actually, the concept of virtual reality itself tells that there is not a real line between reality and illusion. It is all mixed together. Do we live in the world or does the world exist within oneself I am more inclined to the latter. Scott Brooks writes: Great points, Leo. I like illusions as well. My youngest son is into magic and illusions and does a pretty fun show for kids birthday parties. Even though I know how the illusion works, it is still fascinating and fun. But I39d like to take it a step deeper. I know when I39m being tricked when watching my son or a Penn and Teller show. But what about when I have no idea that I39m being deceived8230.or even deeper, when I39m the one doing the deceiving, and I39m both the deceiver and the mark (i. e. self deception). I39d like to know how I can clear my head of those times. But8230..how do I know what I don39t know that I don39t know Rocky39s Ghost writes: Excellent post, Scott Thanks for sharing. Rocky believes that, when speculating (as distinct from investing), more important than seeing one39s own ghosts, is seeing everyone else39s ghosts. For example, in his early days, Rocky would occasionally find bona fide arbitrages in the options markets. However, the ability to monetize the arbitrages relied on OTHER PEOPLE also seeing the arbitrage and closing it. If you are the only sane man, you will likely go bankrupt long before others realize that you are the only sane man. Or, put another way, when the lunatics are running the asylum, it pays to trade as a lunatic 8212 while remaining mindful that they are indeed lunatics. Now where did Rocky leave his bottle of Clozapine All the testing I have done on stops indicates they work exactly as you would expect. They reduce risk and they also reduce expected return. Sometime they reduce the return to breakeven or negative in which case its better off just not to trade. In other cases they eliminate bankruptcy risk and allow for some return, but not the expected return you get without stops. It seems to fit right in with EMT, CAPM and practical ideas on markets regarding risk and return. If you are selling disaster risk, you expect to be paid for it. Ralph Vince writes: Or, expressed in terms of their effect: Total Return (A2 - V)(Q2) - 1 Where A Average return per trade (expressed as a multiple, i. e. 1.0 return) V Variance in the A39s Q total number of A39s When stops reduce V more than they increase A2, it pays to use them. I suggest conducting tests on this, it is far more revealing (in terms of the distribution of the A39s) then meets the (rolling) eye(s) when looking at the simple equation. It can be interesting to open up a quote list and view the prices with a mindset that you haven39t looked at the market in months or years. Oil here, bonds there, etc. And then process your initial reaction. The loss of a nail caused the loss of a war. It all starts with the horrific having two positions on opposite sides at same time. Worse yet is the use of mental stops with the idea that the broker can39t read your mind. Andrew Goodwin writes: Voice brokers know the locations of the stops and the times when they will make margin calls or force liquidations. The broker does not need to read your particular mind to know the levels that once hit will create more trading activity. Mental stops fail because a broker can extrapolate the actionable levels from the inside view of the collective levered positions and stops given by other clients. Bejan39s basic premise is that everything in nature is a flow. There are the obvious flows of things like water (rivers, blood) or air (lungs, air distributions systems), etc. In addition, he discusses flows of stress, for example, in the arrangement of the limbs on a tree, or the flow of animate mass, e. g. when a herd of animals runs or school of fish swims. His premise is that living systems are continuously changing and adapting their configuration to maximize the quotcurrents that flow throughquot them. Even the building of the Egyptian pyramids, he argues, represents the flow of stones from a broad area to a single point (the pyramid). Here quotlivingquot systems (both animate and inanimate, such as rivers or pyramids being built) are constantly evolving and changing their configuration. When a system stops reconfiguring its flows, it dies: a dried-out river bead, dead animal, or completed pyramid receives no further maintenance, i. e. there is no more reconfiguration when something is dead. Here is a Q amp A on the concept of Constructal Design by a Forbes reporter and Bejan that has things described in less technical terms than his paper. In terms of applying these concepts to trading, it seems to me that the obvious entity that flows is money. One concern that I have, however, in adapting Bejan39s ideas to a trading model is that, in the flows that he is describing, there is always a driving force from high to low: gravity pulls water down a landscape, a pressure differential drives air in and out of the lungs, a disturbance or threat forces animals to run in the opposite direction. As a result, all of the flows that he is describing are one-way, or unidirectional. This central to his entire theory, as the opposite behavior is prohibited from the Second Law of Thermodynamics: heat does not move from cold objects to hot on its own, rivers do not flow uphill, air does not come out of the lungs when the diaphragm expands to reduce the pressure in the lungs to draw air in, dropping the broken pieces of a coffee cup on the floor will never result in re-assembled cup, etc. Thus it would seem that a critical element in adapting Bejan39s ideas for trading will revolve around describing a driving force for the flow of money. This is really your expertise far more than mine, but let me start the dialog by suggesting that the driving force for money is the perceived potential for money growth (PPMG). 39Perceived Potential39 here implies that there is an opportunity to make a profit from an investment, but that the outcome is not necessarily guaranteed (think of Enron and Bernie Madoff). Reconfiguration, also a key tenant to Bejan39s ideas, happens with the flow of money from one instrument to the next. If we now draw the analog of a river basin, and that high PPMG is analogous to a low point in the flow of water over a landscape, then it can be seen that money will flow from regions of low potential (elevated areas, mountainsides) to regions of high potential (low areas, valleys). The lower the elevation, the more rapidly money will flow into it. What complicates the analysis is that PPMG is a dynamic quantity. A company can be very profitable at one point in time (Kodak, General Motors, Blackberry), and thus have considerable growth potential, but over time, its growth potential can change. This is analogous to the river basin landscape changing constantly in elevation, and having the flow adjust accordingly. This does happen in nature as well, of course, both slowly (Colorado RiverGrand Canyon) or quickly (earthquakevolcano). Such a time-varying landscape would be important to include in a trading model. I think that the above would be a bare minimum to implement the ideas that Bejan is putting forth. I did do a quick search to see if people were using these ideas for trading (in particular) or financeeconomics, but I did not find much. This is not a surprise: Bejan39s ideas are new and different and thus will take some time to permeate to other areas. This, in itself, is an opportunity to seize the advantage. The risk, is, of course, that the ideas may not have significant utility in trading to upset the state-of-the-art now in place, and thus will not pay off after time spent trying to integrate them. This is the risk of adopting any new technologyidea, I suppose. Anyway, there you have it: my rather disjointed ideas on the matter. I would be interested to see if Bejan39s ideas could prove to be of utility for trading. Jon Longtin, Ph. D. P. E. Professor Department of Mechanical Engineering 159 Light Engineering Bldg. State University of New York at Stony Brook Stony Brook, NY 11794-2300 QEe (QE euro) seems to be moving forward. So why did gold, which has had some strength over the past month, not budge at the news the way currencies did anonymous writes: The theory I am working on in my head and was hoping to have time to write about tonight is as follows: QE depends upon a central bank quotcartelquot all agreeing to do it in unison and or in staggered phases. The cartel allows them to get away with this absurd policy without immediately wrecking the currency as compared to other currencies they don39t seem to be devaluing. Switzerland broke the cartel. This means that the future of QE is in fact in jeopardy and will be more limited than otherwise. anonymous writes: Isn39t that the path off all cartels of gt 1 players (Debeers), Look at OPEC post 1974. Like the prisoner39s dilemma, the quotcartel participant, quot game would call for a certain, upside price where the first member jumps ship, with a phony justification for their greed trumping the purpose of the cartel. anonymous replies: Yes of course. Only in this case instead of restricting the supply, the deal was to expand the supply. In the old days when Kuwait broke from the cartel and cheated it brought oil down more than just by the amount of Kuwait39s extra production because once one member of the cartel cheats everyone else is going to. It39s the same thing here. Once SNB broke, others will be tempted to as well. This isn39t talked about in the press because of the insane and incorrect notion that your currency going up is somehow a bad thing, so the mainstream all think that the Swiss are somehow hurting themselves. Alston Mabry writes: But the alt version is that they weren39t playing along because their EUR purchases were putting upward pressure on EUR, counter to ECB39s strategy. anonymous replies: What ECB, US, and Japan would have wanted is for the SNB to devalue along with them. SNB wasn39t going to do that. Now, all of QE depends on the big lie that you are not really printing money and not really devaluing the currency. Any time someone says quotyou39re printing moneyquot the response is met with quotyou just don39t understandquot followed by a description of the complicated process of QE and how it39s not really printing money. But the fallback position for the QE39ers is quotlook, there39s no inflation (no consumer inflation. it39s in assets) and quotthe currency isn39t being devaluedquot. The SNB39s peg kept the ECB being able to claim they weren39t destroying the currency. The SNB undoing of the peg reveals that the emperor has no clothes and they are, in fact, going to destroy the currency. Alston Mabry responds: It may be true that claims were made about the EUR on the basis of the CHF cross. But I find compelling the narrative that Mario called up Thomas Jordan and said quotlook, unless you39re willing to print tens of B of extra SFrs a month, you39re not gonna be able to keep up. quot And Jordan, knowing that technically the SNB could do it but politically internally couldn39t, said quotyou39re rightquot and they dropped the cap. The RSP (equal-weighted) SampP index ETF is well-known. Less known is the RYE (equal-weighted energy sector ETF). It has only existed since about 2006. Equal-weighted ETF39s give a larger weighting to smaller-capitalization stocks and, to the extent that individual stocks approach zero, they engage in the Rocky pastime of quotscaling down to oblivionquot. That is, If cap weighted indices quotride the trend, quot equal-weighted indices sell the winners and add to the losers on each rebalancing. Might anyone have some insights about whether such a practice is inherently superior or inferior over time And especially for a (distressed) sector index Kora Reddy writes: But the academic literature suggest otherwise: quotequal-weighting is a contrarian strategy that exploits the quotreversalquot in stock pricesquot (see this pic) . Except in Australia, equi-weighted outperformed the cap-weighted in major countries. Gordon Haave writes: I wrote about this 6-7 years ago when the first Wisdom Tree stuff came out and they were talking about how equal weighted was superior to cap weighted and showed the back-tested numbers. All they were really saying is that quotover time small caps beat large capsquot which isn39t exactly news. To call a equal weighted index and quotindexquot is itself misleading. A cap weighted index is quotthe marketquot or some approximation thereof. Theoretically every single market player could go passive and be in it. You can39t do that with an equal weighted index (or at least not without distorting prices). As to your idea of how they have to double down on the loses that is somewhat limited by the fact that once the name falls out of the index it is dropped. Larry Williams comments: Along that line Our work shows it is better to invest equal dollar amounts vs equal share amounts Gibbons Burke adds: I know a fund which used to invest 90 of client stake in SPX via SPY. A couple of years ago they switched to 10 equal dollar investment in each of the nine sector select spdr ETFs, with the intent of rebalancing to equal dollar allocation annually. They found, in testing, the strategy provided an average of 200 bps of boost each year over the cap-weighted all-SPY investment. anonymous writes: Regarding a depressed sector, is there any truth to the adage: quotBuy the stock that has gone down the least, and also the one that has gone down the mostquot. The strong stock will come back smartly and the oversold weak stock will come up from being smashed on a higher percentage then the middle of the pack. So if this is true you could design your own basket of strong stock leaders in the depressed sector mixed with oversold beaten down stocks that pass a screening survival test. Erich Eppelbaum adds: Theoretically speaking, re-balancing a portfolio by using the winnings to buy more of the losers is at the heart of the only portfolio selection methodology that I know of that mathematically guarantees to asymptotically outperform the best stock included in the portfolio (See Thomas Cover39s Universal Portfolio seminal 1991 paper): pdf link. I don39t know if in real life the portfolios resulting from this methodology are inferior or superior over time to those created by rebalancing based on allocating more to the winners (such as a market cap weighted portfolio) I would assume that any result would depend heavily on the rebalancing costs and slippage (the liquidity of big vs small stocks matter, especially when trying to push size), and I would assume that the slippage incurred in a market cap weighted portfolio would be less than that incurred in a equal weight portfolio (less small company shares to buysell). In reference to a previous post, another thing to consider is that perhaps there are many effects at play other than the small-cap quotmore-risk-more-rewardquot effect. For example, a sell-the-winners-buy-the-losers methodology could be profiting partly by say the volatility harvesting effect described by Claude Shannon . This brings up another question: The volatility harvesting effect becomes greater as the volatility of the portfolio39s underlying stocks increases. In the stock market, volatility usually increases when the market falls. Could this mean that an equal weightedrebalanced portfolio would outperform a market cap weighted portfolio during bad times and would the opposite be true during good times Would be interesting to test8230 I make an unapologetic forecast that by Friday, the EU thumb-sucking backscratchers in the markets will realize that Draghi must resign. The emperor has no clothes. Hello USDEUR parity. Stefan Martinek writes: My unapologetic forecast is that USDEUR will go below parity and somewhere around 0.6-0.8 German voters will decide to leave the party. Euro is too strong for weak members, and too weak for strong ones 8212 it does not fit anybody. Political will will change and the path of least resistance will change as well. Nothing dramatic will happen at that point. The world will function as usual, Schengen area will stay in place, winter resorts in Alps will be nice and functioning. Most forecast are usually wrong 8230 The Swiss National Bank (SNB) in a way played a good game of 3 Card Monty the past few years with market participants. The winning card was where the rate was going to be. On September 6, 2011 the SNB set a peg for the EuroSwiss rate at 1.2 when prevailing market rates where approximately 1.1, a depreciation of the Swiss Franc of about 9. Between September 6, 2011 and January 15, 2015 the EuroSwiss rate traded between 1.20 and 1.2650, a roughly 5 range. On January 15, 2015 the SNB removed the 1.2 floor and at the extreme the EuroSwiss market rate went close to .8500, a move of about 30. Who played the game Who controlled the cards Who were the shills I could not help but recall my own adventures in 3 Card Monty and loss of a 50 bill as a student playing Holden Caulfield in Times Square circa 1983. What trading lessons might there be in the move by the SNB and subsequent moves in markets How can these lessons be embodied to provide a future playbook of offensive and defensive plans Following some delirium from trading the markets the past few days some clarity came to mind on some runs the past day or two. First, some empathy to all have may lost in the market this past week. One close friend of many years described the feeling just 30 minutes after the SNB decision by saying quot I feel like I just got my leg blown off, I can barely think straightquot. 10 rules, lessons, and examples I have found effective and illustrative. 1. Find and trade markets where your edge is the greatest. 2. Avoid markets were the probability of rule changes and lack of transparency is present. 3. Think of and imagine market scenarios others fail to. 4. Fundamental macroeconomic forces will ultimately prevail. 5. Trading time frames and profit objectives though must coincide with what the market is giving you at any one time. 6. Quantify risk with a multidimensional perspective, not just by one or two measures such as VAR or a price stop. 7. Learn from history. Jay Gould and his attempts to corner the gold markets in the late 186039s. The Russian default of 1917 and 1998. The European Rate Mechanism break up. The Tequila crisis of 1994. The Asian financial crisis. 8. Be deadly serious, as Gichin Funakoshi said quotYou must be deadly serious in trainingquot. If you have a position make it a meaningful size and monitor it carefully. I recall many comments from fellow traders the past few years saying something like quotI am long EuroSwiss just to have some on but not really watching it. quot 9. Define and use a trading methodology that incorporates a process and framework that works for you. Inclusive in this should be a daily routine that includes diet, exercise, family time, etc. 10. Seek out catalysts for CHANGE in markets. Where are the forces, in a Newtonian like law of motion, building up the greatest to cause a CHANGE and movement in markets What further elaborations and examples might there be Stefan Martinek writes: I was thinking about it recently. Great list. I would only add: (a) Be prepared that liquidity in any market can disappear regardless of historical data or experience (b) Mind counterparty risk. Anatoly Veltman writes: Excellent lessons from John. The dilemma here is of common variety, though. Similar to an individual smaller stock: you39re either an insider, or a mark. In case of the SNB last few years: you were either in bed with the devil, or you were exposed to a chance of a -100000 annualized loss on any given random day My recollection of the marketing pitches for retail focused FX platforms was that they had some parallels to the bucket shops described by LeFevre, particularly one of them who advertised that one of your account features could be quotno margin calls. quot If a position went against you by a particular threshold, the broker would automatically close it out, so you would have no quotsurprises. quot anonymous writes: FXCM stock (a listed US company) is indicated down 75 this morning. They issued a statement that the CHF move quotgenerated negative equity balances owed to FXCM of approximately 225 million. quot As of 93014, their stated equity book value was 262.7 million (source: Bloomberg) 8212 so if their book value is real 8212 then this particular problem can be contained. Interactive Brokers stock is indicated down 10 this morning. They have made no public statements so far. But as we39ve seen time and again, broker-dealers rely on customer confidence and should a large number of customers start withdrawing collateral, this could spiral. Hence silence isn39t golden. Ed Stewart writes: A few things about IBKR. First, is is a much more highly capitalized than financial statements at first suggest, as only 15 of the company trades on the exchange, the rest is owned by managers and (mostly, if i recall 75) by CEO Peterffy. As of the last quarterly report, excess regulatory capital stood at 3.25B. SampP credit rating A - Stable, zero long term debt. Anyone who has traded there is aware that relative to other brokers they are very conservative on margining issues, etc. Also, they don39t have the business model of bucketing all of the trades on their FX platform like most retail platforms do. The IB FX ecn mostly allows IB customers to trade with other IB customers and other banks, though they are also a market maker there. In other words it is a much, much stronger business than the crappy retail FX companies. The other issue that is hitting the company recently (hurt their results last quarter and almost certainly this quarter) Is that they keep their equity in a basket of 16 currencies that they call the GLOBAL, so they are getting hit by the strong dollar. I could be wrong I think a currency peg blowing up is the kind of thing their risk department and peterffy would identify as a risk and substantially mitigate, especially if they had retail traders trading in masse against the peg the way the other forex platforms had. This is based on my reading most of Peterffy39s writing and conference calls over the last few years, I could be dead wrong. If there is a bad quarter out of this but the damage is not too bad I think it might end up a solid buying opportunity. It was my largest stock holding in tax deferred accounts till yesterday when I dumped most of it. Garrett Baldwin adds: Global Brokers NZ has failed and Alpari U. K. is insolvent. anonymous writes: What am I missing Why should a retail broker go under because a currency moved Were they trading against their customers as opposed to just executing orders Anatoly Veltman writes: If they don39t call for margin, they end up owning position. How could they do anything with a position thru the entire initial bidless 20 gap They obviously did rush to liquidate on the small bounce and that39s how the new low was made (look up intraday chart) 83 years ago. It39s a very good read, and appropriate for the time, but government interactions in the grain markets, wars, and international trade have rendered much of this obsolete. Still, it39s a good picture of the level of scholarship that was applied to the wheat markets 83 years ago. Much has changed from then to now, but one thing never changes. The best and brightest of any generation will always drill down, and try to find a way to beat a single market. 1. The Swiss franc is up about 17 this morning. This is unprecedented in recent history. That is a BLACK SWAN. A BLACK SWAN is an event that you have not read to be predicted on Zero Hedge or anywhere else. This cannot happen without reverberations 8212 and could be destabilizing 8212 and volatility inducing in unexpected places. 2. This could be the ultimate no-confidence vote in the Euro currency. 3. It makes Bitcoin39s move of 23 yesterday look quaint. anonymous writes: The most obvious conclusions to draw: 1) Further downward pressure on the Euro currency 2) Further downward pressure on global yield curves 3) Further loss of confidence in central banks More derivative thoughts to consider: a. Impact of forced liquidation of short CHF trades and potential subsequent reduction in risk and positions b. Impact on CHF funding trades in places like Hungary and Poland c. Impact on Swiss economy given where the currency and rates settle d. Impact on SNB flows e. Impact on ECB meeting next week in terms of QE The Fundamental Dilemma of all market manipulation, whether legal (as in this case) or illegal: when you stop pushing up the value of an asset, it falls back, giving you mark to market losses on your inventory. Today the SNB is taking tremendous losses on the Euro assets it has accumulated in its Euro buying binge. I would not want to be a private shareholder of the SNB (or a swiss taxpayer) on a day like this. Speaking of round numbers, the euroswiss must want to end up close to parity of 1. It will make it so much easier to do all the conversion at Davos. I notice that the Dow is down already and I note that gas is 1.86 this morning overnight from 1.92 here in Southern Ohio. Many empty rentals around my area. Many people, due to oil production in my area, have been been priced out of renting. I have several empty units but have found over the years people don39t move over the holidays nor the cold winter months unless evicted or just moving into the area. A complete background check will sort through any of those issues. Gary Rogan writes: There is enormous destruction going on of all kinds of daring, innovative oil drillers, the best of the best, which will produce damage that may last many years, as well as many traditional oil, infrastructure, transportation, etc, etc, companies but all people care about is the price of gas. Isn39t that selfish Pitt T. Maner III writes: It will be interesting to see the impacts to natural gas supplies as the number of drill rigs in operation decreases. quotIn fact, the current natural gas rig count remains 80 below its all-time high of 1,606 reached in late summer 2008. In the year-ago period, there were 372 active natural gas rigs. quot This paper gives an idea of the relationship between drilling new wells and production. Talking to a friend: quotIf a year ago somebody had said just put everything in zeroes and utilities and then forget about it until January 2015, what would we have thought of that suggestionquot And then I wondered: What is it now that would sound just as stupid As the days lengthen and the crocuses bloom, as the buzz of spring approaches, one39s thoughts turn to the icon of the warmer times of the year: baseball. Over the weekend, I was talking to a neighbor about the coming season, and he commented about the changing styles of ballparks and their effect on the game and how it39s played. Consider: Yankee Stadium is often referred to as the House that Ruth Built. I had always understood that to be a reference to the size of the ballpark. When it opened in 1923, Yankee Stadium was 60-70 percent bigger in seating than other ballparks8211accommodating the fan interest in the King of Swat. But one could argue that the moniker The House that Ruth Built was as much about the dimensions of the field as about the size of the stands. Yankee Stadium had incredibly shallow depths along the foul lines8211under 300 feet. While no one would question Ruth39s ability to belt out home runs, the quantity of those hit at home was likely aided by the short distance to the foul pole. Perhaps that39s the reason Ruth39s (and Gehrig39s) power is shown so well in extra base hits. Those aren39t helped so much by a shortened outfield. Compare Jacobs Field (now Progressive Field) in Cleveland, or Oriole Park at Camden Yards, with 320-330 along the foul lines. (The short lines were not strictly a Yankee Stadium characeteristic. Ebbets Field and Fenway Park, for instance, both had similarly short foul lines.) Big difference. (It wasn39t until 1958, tough, that dimensions like those of Yankee Stadium would be considered unacceptable under the MLB rules for new ball parks.) As we were talking, I thought about the different eras in the construction of baseball parks. There was first the innovator era, when the owners built the parks and often named the parks for themselves. Wrigley Field, for instance, named for the owner of the Cubs who play there. Not that Wrigley built the park, he just named it after himself during the late 1920s. Comiskey Park was built and named for the White Sox owner, Ebbetts Field in Brooklyn, Griffith Stadium (Washington Senators), Shibe Park (renamed Connie Mack Stadium) (Philadelphia As), and so on. (Not all were so named, though Forbes Field in Pittsburgh, for instance, was named for the soldier in the French and Indian War who named the city.) It was in this cohort of ballpark that the quotclassicalquot design took hold. It would hold sway until after World War 2, when the next era of ballparks would arrive, typified by Memorial Stadium (quotThe Old Grey Lady on 33rd Streetquotor quotThe World39s Largest Outdoor Insane Assylum, quot take your pick) in Baltimore. (At one time, at 34th and Charles Streets, by the Entrance to Johns Hopkins39s Homewood campus, there was a bust of Johns Hopkins on an island in the street. When Memorial Stadium opened, so the story goes, there was such confusion about where the stadium was8211many drivers thinking the bust was for some athlete, insisted on turning onto 34th Street, with lots of accidents, as the traffic signals were not set for lots of left turning traffic (many drivers jumping the light)8211that the bust was moved to the side of the road. At least that was the story on the Homewood campus, particularly the university39s historian during the centennial commemoration of its founding. This new cohort of ballparks was designed for mixed use8211not as a ballpark for which some other sport might be tolerated. That meant some compromises. They still abided by the general feel of the first round8211the quotowners39 roundquot8211of parks. Bricks and such, but they also started strut some steel materials were used to have the ballparks quotfit inquot with the surrounding community, though how something as big could quotfit inquot isn39t so straightforward. One other interesting feature to this round: Unlike the prior round, in which the teams financed the construction of the park, now municipalities were doing so. Perhaps that was the beginning of the myth that ballparks pay for themselves. At least for the baseball season, with 81 games played, I can see how there might at least be an argument for economic benefit, but for football. In any case, this round of ballparks lasted into the 1960s. It may not harken the same loyalty that the owners39 round would8211but when the baby boomers went to the park, it was as often as not one of the newer parks, and so the newer parks were embedded with pleasant memories in their brains, unless of course they were Senators39 fans, in which case I can39t talk about any association of pleasantry since my recollection of the Senators in that era was of a team more consistent with A-AA ball than the big show. And some days, sandlot might be applicable (except when Frank Howard was hitting well they didn39t look so bad then8211even the defense seemingly performed on those days). width392 height232 The Astrodome ushered in the quotmodernquot era of ballparks. It was domed8211that was new. It had a space age look (befitting its location in Houston)8211that was new. It was big8211that was new (well, it was in Texas). No longer would the fans enjoy the proximity to the field of the earlier eras. Houston being a major petrochemical center, it39s not surprising that the Astrodome also ushered in Astroturf, a plastic pseudograss that bears as much similarity to its living counterpart as an aluminum Christmas tree does to the living (or at least formerly living) one (or if you prefer, ox to bull, or McDonald39s shake to those available at many of the remaining diners still operating in the US). I39ll leave aside the issue of whether real baseball can be played on pseudograss8211a field lacking the sweet scent of mowed green blades, all in support of that most pristine shape in sports, the baseball diamond8211or has to be played on the real thing to qualify as quotrealquot baseball. There are also variations on this theme8211for instance, no dome, or a retrievable cover. Perhaps the peak of the third age can be found in the Hubert H. Humphrey Metrodome, know affectionately in the Twin Cities, prior to its demise, as the West Bank Marshmallow. It may remain as the only site in which an MLB game was snowed out by a 15 inch blizzard on May 15, 19868211without a snowflake ever touching the field. The Metrodome was a hitter39s paradise. Four baggers would go flying out faster than an F-18 off a carrier. Maybe that39s why Kirby Puckett liked playing for the Twins so much. Regardless, while there are many who probably liked the Metrodome, it always struck me as sterile. Indeed, that39s my complaint about the third age: the ballparks lacked character, identity. There was one thing I liked about the Metrodome, though: it was right by downtown. That was not a universal characteristic. It wasn39t a feature of ballparks until the fourth era, the one we are still in. In the fourth era, ballparks went back to the early 1900s to take their style cues. Sure, modern engineering enhanced the experience, with unobstructed views. And there were the skyboxes, rights to which flowed to the team39s bottom line. But with the style going back to the classic one of the early 20th century, one might term it retro. Fans like the effect. Ballparks built over the past two decades have been designed in the retro style. Bricks, old style grillwork, often located near downtowns, and so on. Character was not absent in these places. The trend started with the building of Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Oriole Park was part of a grander scheme to revitalize Baltimore39s downtown. First, there was Harborplace, then the Aquarium (site of Willy Don39s battle with the sea lions in 1981). And then, nothing. There were a few apartment houses built, a convention center, but not much else. Downtown Baltimore still felt incomplete. With the departure of the Colts in 1984, scurrying like a thief in the night at the end of March that year, with snow flurries in the air and a Governor whose campaign theme of honest government seemed to think that it prohibited him from intervening, Baltimore39s city elders realized the risks of the Orioles leaving Baltimore (I39m not sure the name would have moved as easily as quotColtsquot did) were there, and needed to be addressed. Back in the late 1970s, the Os39 owner, Edward Bennett Williams, complained that it took too long to get from Memorial Stadium back to DC and that Baltimore alone was too small of a market to support a baseball team. Enter the Mayor, who had the police tail Williams back to DC for the next three games that he attended. When Williams next complained about the troubles of leaving 33rd Street, he was met by the Mayor noting how quickly Williams made it back to his DC office (not noted was the speed that Williams39s limousine took to achieve those times, nor the anger among the State police that Williams8211a defense attorney8211that they were under strict orders not to issue a speeding ticket to that car). Williams never complained about it again. So the city elders caucused as they were wont to do, and they decided that Memorial Stadium, beloved as she was, likely was near the end of her useful life. Barely 30, and washed up. Thus began the planning for a new ballpark in downtown Baltimore, around which further downtown development would happen. There was mass transit emerging in the city (though why Baltimore needed a subway is beyond me), and I-95 right next door to facilitate ingress and egress. That was the plan, at any rate. It took a few years to get all the plans in place, but when Camden Yards was finished, it was magnificent. So much so that it kicked off the retro trend One of the nicest ballparks built with the retro theme is ATampT Park, the replacement for Candlestick Part in San Francisco. ATampT was built in part because not only was Candlestick not economically competitive in terms of skyboxes and the like but it was arguably the worst located park in the MLB. The winds off of San Francisco Bay would howl in the summer, so much that Fisherman39s Wharf and the Presidio seemed warm even during the summer. Had the park been built a mere 75 or so yards to the west, the winds would have been less of an issue. Ditto for orientation. The fog that enveloped Candlestick during night games was legendary8211not only for the associated temperature drops, but also the challenges it presented to the player, particularly in the outfield. One of the Alou brothers once noted that at Candlestick, you could see the pitcher throw the ball, you could see the batter hit the ball, but from then until the ball came down, the fielder had to rely on instinct8211you just couldn39t see the ball all the way through the air. This was the place, after all, where Stu Miller (he died a little over a week ago) was called for a balk during the 1961 All Star game played at the spanking new Candlestick Park. Miller always contended he hadn39t balked. No matter, that39s how it was scored Of course, many of the pre-retro parks are beloved by the fans. Dodger Stadium at Chavez Ravine is a great example. Woe to the visiting team fan at Dodger Stadium. Watching Koufax pitch at home was a delight, but the fans like the ambiance of the ball park itself. There are 37 more days before Orioles pitchers and catchers report. The recent events at Petrobras have taken the investment community by storm, and there is much discussion about when the right time is to get in. Bulls figure that given the reserves and the potential that the current price is cheap and will work out well in the long term despite the current scandals. I am usually an quotasset basedquot contrarian, but in this case I am not so sure. Let me give you my perspective: I39ve worked at both Devon and Kerr-Mcgee and had many friends at Chesapeake. To preface this post, I have never been a fan of quotmanagement guruquot books and find them to mostly be trash with little insight. That being said, an excellent book could be written about the resurgence of Oklahoma City and the contrasting fortunes of Kerr-McGee, Devon, and the one-time high-flying Chesapeake Energy over the years and the differing management styles at each company. Perhaps I should write it. However with the protagonist of this post now working for one of the antagonists the final chapter cannot yet be written. If you don39t want to read a few thousand words and just want the punchline it is this: Management and management culture matters, and Devon39s former CFO Jeff Agosta is one of the main reasons for Devon39s success whereas Kerr-McGee has disappeared and Chesapeake goes through recurring crises. Interestingly enough, Jeff is no longer at Devon and now works for former Chesapeake founder Aubrey McClendon39s new company, American Energy Partners. I will write more on that later on in this post. The story for me begins in the mid to late 199039s when I was working for my father39s money management firm. Chesapeake (CHK) was a high flying driller based on horizontal drilling in the Austin Chalk. Wall Street was heavily promoting CHK and it was one of the biggest quotmomentum playsquot on the street. My father didn39t believe it. Frankly, anyone with experience in the austin chalk knew that the decline curves were massive. This time it was supposed to be different because of CHK39s horizontal drilling. Horizontal drilling, however, wasn39t going to change the nature of the austin chalk as a play, it was just going to make the initial production bigger. The problem however was that these were new wells and there wasn39t much history. At the time getting well data was a pain. We had to subscribe to a Petroleum Institute service for around 10,000 dollars per year that sent us CD39s with county well data from Louisiana which was months out of date. Sure enough, the decline curves were massive. We talked to wall street analysts, and of course they didn39t care. CHK was everyone39s favorite. A few years later CHK almost went out of business as sure enough the decline curves were massive. That was the first time I heard the name Aubrey McClendon. The next time was the summer of 2003. I was sitting at my desk at the Zurich office of Kerr-McGee Luxembourg, (thank you IRS for creating such inefficiencies). I had very little to do. I was in Zurich for 2 months for a paid internship that was put together at the last minute because the employee whose job I was doing had a stroke and Kerr-McGee needed someone to take his place while he recovered. The head of the office was an American hired in 1999 (a rare outside the ranks hire). The rest of the staff was Swiss andor German. The European marketing team from the Chemicals unit (later spun off as Tronox) also shared these offices. European Chemicals marketing was run by a Kerr-Mcgee old timer who was one of the few still around from the Karen Silkwood days. The first sign that Kerr-McGee had issues was that I didn39t really have anything to do all day. By and large I was done with my job by 10am. In addition to my day job I was given a project to research the possibility of issuing euro-denominated bonds in Europe. The project didn39t take long. Other than that I had a lot of spare time. Someone in IT at the main office in Oklahoma City seemed to have the sole job of tracking my web surfing and blocking every site that wasn39t work or finance related. The Swiss like to take long lunches and usually have a few beers at lunch as well. A directive had come down from HQ that nobody was allowed to drink at lunch but my boss told us to do what I wanted as long as he didn39t see it. So, sometimes we would take 90 minute lunches by the seaside and have a couple of beers, but that still left the entire afternoon with little to do. I had brought a lot of textbooks with me to Zurich to study finance and economics but I burned through those pretty quickly. If I could do it all over again I would have spent the time learning German, although it was also when I first started to really study body language as I could not communicate verbally. It is really the subject of another post but from my time in Panama, Switzerland, Italy, Albania, Poland, etc. I have become somewhat of an expert in reading body language. Body language doesn39t lie. People do. I now like to sit in restaurants and watch body language. It is fun to spot which woman doesn39t like her date and just wants to get out of there as quickly as possible even vs. which guy is going to get lucky that night. I39m also good now at knowing when I am being lied to - although I have had a few spectacular failures in that regard. Back to Zurich: So I started spending my spare time looking for a permanent job. Simply searching quotenergy companies in Oklahoma Cityquot got by my IT censors and I quickly gathered up the names of all the big energies companies and their officers. By googling around the domain names you can always come up with the structure of corporate email addresses (i. e. firstname. lastname or whatever) because some employee somewhere has always used his or her work address to post on a random message board. So I sent out some emails to some Oklahoma City energy company executives. The emails read as follows: Hello, my name is Gordon Haave. I am currently working for Kerr-McGee in Zurich in the corporate Treasury department. Previously I have served as Vice-President of a 300 million money management firm and as the CFO of a 20 million residential construction firm. I am returning to Oklahoma City in August and am looking for a full time job if you have any available. quot Short and simple appeals work with some people and not with others. I got replies from both Jeff Agosta (then SVP of Finance and Treasurer of Devon) and Aubrey Mclendon (CEO of Chesapeake) Aubrey was very nice as everyone always says he is. We had a brief back and forth and after inquiring around the company he told me that there was nothing available but to stay in touch. Jeff responded basically with a quotyes we are looking for someone, come and see me when you get back to Oklahomaquot. That39s how I ended up working for Devon. However, I was still working at Kerr-Mcgee. Every day was frustrating as there was little to do, and everything I did have to do basically had zero value added. Let me explain: My primary job was ensuring the accurate cash forecast of Kerr-McGee39s North Sea oil and gas operations, and to ensure that cash balances were kept at a minimum so that they could be invested in time deposits. In the morning I had to make sure time deposits were properly received that were due that day, and in the afternoon all cash had to be swept up into new time deposits. These were often overnight or just 2-3 day investments. The process was based off of the weekly cash forecast which was stored on the Kerr-McGee mainframe and accessed by everyone via Citrix. The weekly forecast started on Monday at the operating units. The operators would have to forecast DOWN TO THE PENNY every single expenditure or receipt they knew about. At the end of the day Monday the information would go to one higher level up, where it would be compiled. It would then move on to one level higher up on Wednesday to a treasury analyst for that unit. On Thursday morning I had all of the information for every unit and would complete the overall spreadsheet which presumably someone reviewed on Friday. It was a pain-staking process that took the time of at least 10 people over the course of the week to do. And to what end Of course a Treasury department needs to be able to forecast cash, but down to the penny There were times where somewhere along the way the info would be recalled because someone let out an anticipated 500 expenditure. What difference did it make if 500 was invested one day or two days Ideally if you have the exact cash balance down to the penny you can invest better. For example, if you have 1 million dollars extra and you know you can invest it for and extra 4-5 days instead of just overnight you will earn more interest. But how much Enough to have 10 people working on the thing Enough to harass operating units into worrying about that instead of worrying about their operations Of course not. I once said something to my boss about it and his response was quotyou are lucky, when I first started here they were doing this by carbon paper and fedexed around. We only changed to spreadsheet because they couldn39t buy the carbon paper anymorequot. I was in a good position to learn many other things about the corporate culture. As the young American guy there by myself the chemicals sales force guys would take me out at night on their expense accounts when they passed through town and they expressed how hampered they were by the corporate culture. Also, at the time, Kerr-McGee was spending literally millions of dollars per year on outside consultants whose job it was to change the corporate culture. One of these consultants spent a week or so in Zurich and I went out to eat and have a few drinks with him a few times. I39ll spare you the details of the horror stories but his conclusion was pretty straight-forward: quotIt39s utterly hopeless. quot I don39t want to name names but I remarked to him once that a certain person in our division seemed to be the real brains of the operation, yet he was not the head of it and I was wondering why. The answer: quotBecause X joined the company two weeks later than Y 20 years agoquot. So let39s review what I learned about Kerr-Mcgee: A. A massive number of employees doing useless jobs. B. A culture where seniority is all that matters. C. The corporate tail wagging the operating dog. After Kerr-McGee it was on to Devon in Jeff Agosta39s unit. I ran the quotcash managementquot function which included the investment of excess assets as my primary job but I also performed as somewhat of an overflow worker for other corporate finance projects as needed. What was the corporate culture at Devon Well, it depends on what part of it you worked in. In accounting it was just as bad as as Kerr-McGee. There were massive, bloated staffs of people who did their job the way they did it and simply wanted it to stay that way and didn39t want anything to change. That didn39t really matter too much except that corporate expenses were higher than they should be and landowners would be pissed off because they got their checks late. More than a few times in social settings when telling someone I worked at Devon the response would be quotwhy can39t you send your checks on timequot Corporate finance, however was a lean and mean operating machine. We had less people performing the finance and treasury functions than Kerr-McGee had working on the weekly cash forecast - and we did a good job of it too. This was all under Jeff39s leadership and direction. How did the cash forecast work When I started there was already a cash forecast spreadsheet which I later revamped. Here is how it worked: We pulled production estimates from an existing database. We pulled gas and oil prices from Bloomberg and applied a discount to them for what Devon would actually receive for oil and gas sales. We knew corporate overhead data and when payroll was due, and we knew interest and swap payments already. As to the level of accuracy achieved it was pretty straightforward. The conversation went something lie this: Me: quotJeff, given interest rates and what we can do with extra cash in terms of investments (or lack thereof) and the manpower that we will have to expend in order to get a more detailed forecast it is cheaper to just leave an extra 100 million laying around than expend the effort to harass people so that we can do more detailed forecasts like Kerr-McGee does. Plus, we don39t have to harass people who have other things they are working on. quot And that was that. A rational and efficient decision was made, without regard to quothow things are always donequot and taking into account that there is no need to be harassing operating units. Not harassing the operating units was a theme that Jeff reinforced a few times. I recall one event when a decision was made by an operating unit to bid on some blocks off of Brazil. The email I got was basically quotWe have to have 40 million dollars in an account in Brazil in three daysquot. The 40 million wasn39t a problem - remember we always had more than that just laying around. The problem was opening the account. This is was after 911 and the government was imposing all sorts of new Know Your Customer rules on the banks. To open the account Bank of America wanted endless documentation that there was basically know way I could do within 3 days. In the end I just said to our representative at B of A quotlook, this is Devon energy opening an account for a Devon subsidiary, we have 120 accounts with you. This account need to be opening tomorrow. I will send you whatever documentation you want later, but this account has to be open tomorrow. If you don39t know your customer well enough to open the account then we will have to find someone who doesquot. He opened the account. At some point during or after this event I said to Jeff quotHey, these guys (the operating unit) really have to give us more heads up next timequot. Jeff39s response was quotIt is fine for you to send them an email asking them to give you a better heads up when they can, but always remember they are the one39s who make the money. We work for them, not the other way aroundquot. Meanwhile let39s get back to Chesapeake. Aubrey McClendon the well liked and flamboyant founder had his own management approach. I can39t speak too much to the internal culture as I was not a part of it, but Aubrey was generally highly regarded by his employees. The problem was as follows: He ran the company like it was his own as opposed to running it on behalf of the shareholders. Although it is difficult to quantify this was apparent by the massive amount of money that Chesapeake through around the community in what appeared to me to be one big dose of self-promotion. Chesapeake funding was all over Oklahoma City, and the news articles praising McClendon were legion as he achieved celebrity status. Companies need to distribute money in their communities from time to time for their long run success, but Chesapeake39s giving far outstripped anything Devon or Kerr-McGee was doing. I was constantly thinking to myself quotI wonder how any of this benefits shareholdersquot Later events that are quantifiable proved me correct that indeed the company was being run in his own interested instead of the interest of the shareholders. In short, McClendon has a sweetheart deal where, after shareholders paid to acquire land McClendon got an ownership stake of 2.5 of every well drilled. He had to pay 2.5 of the drilling costs. How did he come up with the 2.5 He borrowed against his interest in the wells. Here is the problem with that: 1. McClendon was competing with Chesapeake for access to capital. 2. Let39s say the price of natural gas goes down and Chesapeake needed to curtail it39s drilling or shut-in some wells. What decision should be made Well, if McClendon has massive personal interest payments to make on his personal debt, he suddenly has a conflict of interest with the company. McClendon of course denied any conflict of interest, but it is ludicrous to believe that shareholders ever would have approved such a situation had they known about it. One defense perhaps is that the board of directors (who represent the shareholders) knew, but this is the same board of directors that bailed McClendon out of his personal financial problems buy buying his private map collection from him and awarding him a massive bonus while Chesapeake39s own fortunes were in decline. In addition McClendon was using CHK employees to do personal work for him and also never disclosed that he had a hedge fund on the side which traded in the same energy markets that CHK did. In short, he ran the company on behalf of himself, instead of on behalf of the shareholders. To contrast this behavior to what I saw at Devon: One time a senior manager operating out of Houston donated 10,000 to a charity without prior approval. As Jeff relayed to me the manager was told quotthat is the shareholders money, either get it back or pay it back yourselfquot. All of this leads to an interesting situation: Aubrey McClendon is the last person in the world I would want to look after my interests as a shareholder. Jeff Agosta is the first. Now, Jeff works for Aubrey. In January 2014 Jeff was fired as the CFO at Devon. I don39t know the scoop and have not spoken to Jeff in 6 years, but as someone with more knowledge than I do tells me: quotHe fd up on a forecastreporting issue, plus he alienated virtually everyone who worked under him with his management style, it seems. quot I have no idea myself, but that he might have alienated people under him would not be a surprise. I for one liked working in his unit. With Jeff would always knew where you stood. If you did a good job you knew it, and if you did a bad job you knew it. Not everyone is like me however. Some people care more about the 5 minutes of pleasantries that need to occur when a conversation starts and need criticism of their idea in a roundabout manner. Jeff was not that guy. More importantly, I would bet that Jeff attempted to impose his efficiency viewpoint on the rest of the company and got a lot of pushback. American Energy Partners is said to be getting ready for an IPO. My advice: figure out who is really calling the shots on the finances. If it is McClendon then take a pass. If it is Agosta then go for it if you otherwise like the company and it39s valuation. So what does all this have to do with Petrobras In the end and after years and years of attempted reform Kerr-McGee called it quits. The stock had basically gone nowhere for 20 years and eventually the chemicals unit was spun off and the Oil amp Gas assets sold to Anadarko. The archaic corporate culture just couldn39t be overcome. In all companies the allocation of capital is incredibly important. The difference between Energy companies and many other companies is that the economic consequences few key decisions will be apparent in short order. Proctor and Gamble can make bad decisions and the result will just be a slow decline in overall market share over a long period of time - this is not the case with an energy company. Petrobras can have all of the reserves in the world, but if management and the corporate culture are no good shareholders will never realize a profit from it. On December 20, 2011, at 9:38am, Jeffrey Buckalew, a successful investment banker and pilot, departed Teterboro, NJ bound for Atlanta in his Socata TBM 700 turboprop along with his wife, their two children, a business associate and the family dog. By 10:05, they were all dead. The NTSB declared the probable cause(s) of the accident to be: The airplane39s encounter with unforecasted severe icing conditions that were characterized by high ice accretion rates and the pilot39s failure to use his command authority to depart the icing conditions in an expeditious manner, which resulted in a loss of airplane control. Happily, I wasn39t working that morning, but I worked that sector for 25 years and the controller who was working the aircraft when it went down is a friend of mine. The accident highlights a couple of issues that are highly relevant to trading. First, the threat of complacency which can lead to a failure to recognize that a dangerous situation is developing, and second, the need to take action to correct the situation immediately. We must be vigilant and nimble. This excellent video by AOPA39s Air Safety Institute gives a thorough discussion of the accident and its causes. I was particularly keen on the last two minutes or so (transcribed below ) and it39s insights. In the first paragraph, replace the word aircraft with quotsystemsquot and aviation and flying with quottradingquot and you can see what I mean. Sometimes experience harms more than it helps. Rather than making us more vigilant, it can lead to a sort of comfortable complacency, not only about the dangers we face, but about our own capabilities and those of our aircraft. Complacency is arguably aviation39s most common vice, and one of the hard truths about flying is that it39s sometimes punished with extraordinary severity. The pilot of N731CA was in the clouds for a total of approximately five minutes. Roughly two minutes passed between his first indication to ATC that icing was a problem and the beginning of the final plunge. It takes time for the human mind to spin up when suddenly confronted with a problem. It takes time to recognize that things have changed and process the idea that an extraordinary response is called for. All during that time, part of the mind is fighting against the new reality, arguing quotstay the coursequot. Two minutes isn39t much time, but it39s enough time. Enough time to make a decision, declare an emergency and reverse the climb. Or, just push the nose over and worry about ATC later. Or at least, that39s what we39d like to think. The truth of the matter, which is that two minutes really isn39t much time for someone who is surprised, conflicted and almost certainly frightened, is decidedly less comforting. Anatoly Veltman writes: Yes, there is an adage that biggest losses come immediately following biggest gains. It39s also possible that big gains may follow big gains. My explanation is that what brought the initial big gains was the increase in volatility. Gary Rogan writes: So if either big losses or big gains follow big gains what is one supposed to do after big gains Stefan Martinek adds: Theoretically, we should de-leverage and adjust for volatility (I assume our initial position was volatility normalized). Practically, doing nothing and ignore some vol. spike usually does not hurt as much as believed especially for long vol. Strategien. Exitadjustment is therefore different if strategy does well in storms or if it is killed by storms. Some trading storms are good. The notion that the United States has had a two-party system over the last hundred years is largely a fantasy. This may be another successful schoolteacher fairy tale designed to discourage quotconservativesquot from having any patience with the minority party it may be simply part of the American notion that the two teams on on the field have an equal chance that is to be determined by quothow much they want itquot. Either way, the fantasy of equal competition does not fit the facts. The Republicans have only won the trophy once in the last hundred years - in 1928. That was the only time where the Republicans continued to control both houses of Congress as a member of their party was re-elected President. The results were these: Republican House margin of majority: 12, Republican Senate margin of majority (including Vice-President39s vote in the event of a tie): 10. The Democrats, on the other hand, have 4 Super Bowl rings: 1936, 1940, 1944, and 1964. Their first - Roosevelt39s 2nd election - was the biggest blowout: Democratic House margin of majority: 30, Democratic Senate margin of majority (including Vice-President39s vote in the event of a tie): 34. Even in the era of divided government and less than landslide elections, the drift has remained in favor of the Democratic party. 2008 election results - Democratic House margin of majority: 19, Democratic Senate margin of majority (including Vice-President39s vote in the event of a tie): 21 2014 election results - Republican House margin of majority: 17, Republican Senate margin of majority (deducting Vice-President39s vote in the event of a tie): 3 What interests me is the likelihood that the United States may finally have a genuine two-party system. If it does happen, it will be because the Republicans finally become what Grant planned for them to be 140 years ago - the party of the new Constitution that included the 14th Amendment. is may actually change. The Democrats have been the party of Federal executive authority since their founding whenever possible, they have looked to the White House to order the entire country to do what they wanted - i. e. buy Louisiana, chase slaves, regulate the sale of sick chickens, etc. During my lifetime, the notion that that the States who make up the Union have equal sovereignty suffered the same fate as Grant39s reputation as President. It ceased being taught in any law or other type of school, and the presumption of absolute Federal authority became universal. Now, to my delight and surprise, the idea equal sovereignties and rights of citizenship for the States and the Union has revived. People, even judges, have read the 10th Amendment and understand the meaning of its plain language. Wir werden sehen. I recently connected a turntable to my professional sound system with equalizers, subwoofers, and running two 1700 watt power amps. I have a collection of several hundred vintage vinyl records from the 60s on. I was amazed anew at how full and involving the analog sound is. You can hear the wood tones in the guitar of George Benson. It makes you feel like lying down and just listening to the music, or dancing. That just doesn39t happen with CD39s or digital content. The digital sound algorithms leave out some of the feeling and nuance of the sound. Boosting the bass does nothing but cover the lack of content in the other registers. Also, they vinyl has lasted for 50 years with excellent quality. The art on the covers is fascinating. Meanwhile, my cd39s have dissolved, the cases broken, and been transferred to hard drive and lacks the same fidelity. High drama in the SampP. Like a Dumas or L39Amour n novel. (who else writes adventure like this) monday change -30 tues change -26 wed change 35 thur change 36 fri change -20 prev week change -40 Perhaps this explains the movement up in Vix. It39s like a boxing match in the final round, or a tennis rally in doubles with all 4 players at net blasting at each other. What other sport situation A very interesting article reminding us that we can estimate the standard deviation of most of our data as the range4 or (b-a)4 where b is the highest and a is the lowest obse ration. This leads to many interesting augmentations. You can quickly calculate the significance of a result by 4u x n to 12 (range). I was led to this result by a very interesting 1980 Box on evolutionary manufacturing operations. I was amazed that the authors were so clear and precise about the statistics, but then I saw that the author was Box and Draper, considered two of the world39s leading statisticians.